Jan 20, 2017 4 min read

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Tom Brady is, to steal a line from “Honeymoon in Vegas,” “Like unbeatable,” kind of like a straight flush.

Or, at least that’s the thinking of many.

The numbers, however, and what my eyes saw last Saturday night against the Houston Texans, tell me a different story.

In his past two playoff games, Brady has completed less than 50 percent of his passes in each game. He’s thrown three touchdowns and four interceptions.

The reason the Patriots won last week was not so much because of Brady but because Houston was completely inept on offense.

Don’t get me wrong. Brady is still good.

But if you can pressure him, as the Denver Broncos did in last year’s AFC Championship and Houston did last week, he’s more Brady Quinn than he is Tom Brady. OK, that’s a stretch, but the point remains the same.

The Steelers have to find a way to get some hits on Brady and knock him off his game. They can’t allow him to stand in the pocket and pat the ball, waiting for a receiver – likely on a crossing route – to come open.

That will get you beaten. The Steelers know this because that’s happened to them a number of times against Brady.

The trick is getting to Brady with four rushers and not having to blitz him. He eats that up.

These Steelers might be better prepared to do just that with James Harrison, Bud Dupree, Stephon Tuitt and Javon Hargrave.

All are capable pass rushers. But they’ve got to get home and get home quickly.

The Steelers also can’t allow the Patriots to run the ball effectively. Of everything that could happen in this game, I’m most sure that they’ll do a good job of that.

Believe it or not, the Steelers want the Patriots throwing the ball 40 to 50 times, not having balance like they did in their 27-16 win at Pittsburgh earlier this season.

Brady attempted just 26 passes in that game. LeGarrette Blount ran the ball 24 times for 127 yards and two touchdowns.

But Pittsburgh’s run defense has been much better since midseason as Lawrence Timmons and Ryan Shazier have meshed together better.

Without Rob Gronkowski to beat them – remember, he has four touchdowns in the past two games against the Steelers – Timmons, Shazier and strong safety Sean Davis can attack the line of scrimmage a little more than they would have been able if Gronkowski were playing.

Martellus Bennett is a good tight end but he’s banged up and isn’t the run-after-the-catch threat Gronk is.

Offensively, the Steelers will have to get good reads out of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.

The Patriots figure to load up to stop Le’Veon Bell on early downs and double Antonio Brown in obvious passing situations.

But, I also think tight end Ladarius Green plays in this game. Call it a gut feeling. Call it what you like, but I think Green gets 10 or so snaps and at least three targets in this game, playing on obvious passing downs.

Roethlisberger is going to have to mix it up. He’ll have to keep the Patriots guessing what’s coming just as the Patriots will attempt to keep him guessing.

And he’ll have to use Bell in the passing game, something the Steelers haven’t done much of in the postseason.

Bell had 10 receptions against the Patriots in their previous meeting this season and New England allowed 102 receptions to running backs this season, the second-highest total in the league.

Pittsburgh also has to get the ball into the end zone when it gets in close. New England allowed a touchdown on 51 percent of opponent’s trips inside the 20, good for 8th best in the NFL. The Steelers were fifth at 47.5 percent. Kansas City, by the way, was fourth at 45.6 percent.

It won’t be easy, but it also might not be quite as difficult as it was last week.

But this game likely will come down to the Steelers making Brady look human.

This will, after all, be his 11th trip to the AFC Championship and sixth-straight, both of which are records.

But, he’s not unbeatable in these situations. In fact, he’s lost in the AFC Championship in three of the past four seasons.

A straight flush isn’t, in fact, unbeatable, as Nicholas Cage learned in “Honeymoon in Vegas,” if you flip that royal flush.

The bet here is that the Steelers, who are 6-point underdogs, make it four of five losses for Brady in the AFC Championship.

Take the Steelers, 27-23.