In the 2016 election, the center did not hold
The Irish poet W.B. Yeats wrote in “The Second Coming,” “Things fall apart; the center cannot hold.”
Yeats was referring to the state of civilization in the aftermath of World War I. His words are indeed appropriate for the shattered condition of American politics in 2017.
In a two-party political system, being elected and governing from the center has always been the key to success. We differ from a parliamentary democracy, where numerous political parties, some with fringe views, are permitted to flourish and compete for power by forming coalitions. Our republic works best when only two conflicting ideologies compete for the center to win elections. Third parties have never met with much success in the United States.
There are reasons why the importance of the center in modern American politics often gets lost.
First, activists dominate the primary process. This forces otherwise centrist candidates to play to the extremes. Second, the Nixon-era label “silent majority” has always applied to the political center. Even in our high-octane, 24/7 media environment, almost all of the political chatter comes from the extremes and not the center.
Leading up to the 2016 presidential election, both Democrats and Republicans took the center for granted. Moderate Democrats were sure they had young and minority voters on their side, all of whom would enthusiastically vote to extend President Obama’s vision of America.
More progressive Democrats were sure that changing views on social equality would automatically translate into support from the center. Meanwhile, Republicans of all stripes were sure that the center was fed up with stagnation in Washington, D.C., and ready to give them control of Congress and the White House.
All of the pundits, pollsters and sages were wrong. The center did not hold. It rearranged itself in ways that political experts could not predict. As a result, Democrats were banished to the wilderness, and traditional Republicans are forced to do business with a man and a movement that few understand or respect.
The fact that the center did not hold decided the 2016 election and not Russian interference, the FBI or advisers working for President Trump. Figuring out the views of moderate Democrats in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan will help determine which candidates succeed in upcoming elections.
As those elections approach, it would be a mistake for progressives to get caught up in the circus surrounding the president. Gloating over his setbacks widens the partisan divide and helps Trump hold his supporters together in a siege mentality.
Trump’s presidency is an outlier and will self-destruct on its own. The time of progressives would be better spent grooming candidates and developing policy acceptable to the evolving center for 2018 and 2020.
Second, it cannot be assumed that young and minority voters will flock to the polls to vote for Democrats.
Those votes need to be earned by listening to their concerns and adopting specific policies. Millenials don’t vote as a uniform bloc. Those who live and work in rural areas vote like their parents, and do not share the views of their urban cousins. And black voters who went to any length to vote for President Obama were not motivated to vote for Hillary Clinton. Latino voters, notwithstanding the immigration debate, are conservative on many issues.
Third, upcoming elections must be about a Democratic vision for America, not about how deplorable the president or his followers have been. Millions of Americans voted for a man with no moral compass, not because of who he was but because of the promises he made. It is true that some of the promises were based on racist and nativist ideas. These must be attacked with vigor. But many of the economic promises are ones responsible Democrats can actually work to deliver.
The center will hold for sound economic policy.
Fourth, there is a misplaced belief among progressives that the failures of Trump and the Republican Congress will usher in the promised land of social democracy. Many hope the death of the Republican health care plan will be the birth of a single-payer health system. But the evolving center is not prepared for a change of that magnitude. The history of enduring social reforms is one where Congress improves laws over the years. The Affordable Care Act was not perfect. The center will hold to make it better, over time.
The road to regaining control of Congress and the White House will be complex, arduous and full of setbacks for progressives. In fact, progressives living in Washington County are in the ideal place and time to start work. We are in the middle of the center that did not hold.
There are many registered Democrats in the county who voted for Trump. Their concerns must be heard. Washington County does not have the mindset of the Northeast, or even Pittsburgh. Our two Democratic commissioners are more conservative on many issues then I would like, but truth be told, they reflect our community and they govern rationally and without partisanship. There is no better environment for progressives to analyze the center and help shape its future.
If we can get the center to hold here, with policies accepted by a majority of citizens, it can happen anywhere. It is time to stop gloating over Trump’s failures and get busy.
Stout is a Washington attorney.