Nov 17, 2022 5 min read

Could T.J. Watt still win Defensive Player of the Year despite missing seven games?

Well, probably not. But given how the Steelers have played defensively in the two games he’s been on the field, perhaps he should get some MVP votes.

The Steelers limited the New Orleans Saints to 10 points, 29 rushing yards and 186 total yards. They also forced a pair of turnovers.

It raised their record to 2-0 this season with Watt in the lineup. Of course, he also played in the regular-season opener, a game in which they forced five Cincinnati turnovers and recorded seven sacks in a 23-20 overtime win.

The Steelers’ record this season without Watt? It’s just 1-6.

With Watt back in the lineup last week, the Steelers played with more of a swagger.

“Yeah, you can’t,” Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said when asked earlier this week about being able to measure the emotional lift Watt brings to the team. “There’s an intangible quality to players like him. They do. They bring more than their presence and their playmaking. They instill confidence in those around them. So, that is a very real thing. You can’t necessarily measure it, but if somebody’s been in this business, I acknowledge that it is real.”

There’s no doubt it’s real and it’s spectacular.

The Steelers are 53-24-1 in his career when Watt starts. They’re 1-10 when he doesn’t.

Tomlin preaches the next-man-up mentality to his team. And they believe it – for the most part.

But they’re also smart enough to realize that doesn’t carry over to missing the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year.

“It does affect you when you don’t have one of your better players out. It’s always good for the team when you have him back in there,” Steelers defensive coordinator Teryl Austin said. “It does. It boosts morale, it’s like anything. You always want to have your best players out there fighting with you and fighting to get the win that you’re trying to get. So, it was good to have him out there and I think it was a really big boost for all of us.”

• It seemed to be a boost for the Steelers’ running game, as well.

The Steelers rushed for 217 yards in the win over the Saints. It was the first time they’ve rushed for more than 200 yards in a game since 2016.

And they did it by using a lot of bigger lineups, with two tight ends on the field.

Many wondered who would replace Chase Claypool in the offensive formations after he was traded to the Chicago Bears two weeks ago for a 2023 second-round draft pick. Turns out, the answer was blocking tight end Zach Gentry in many cases.

And that wasn’t a bad thing.

NFL teams are averaging 4.5 yards per carry this season. That is the highest average in league history. They’re averaging 11.0 yards per reception. That’s the lowest total since 1933 – the year the Steelers were founded.

The reason? So many teams have added smaller run-and-hit linebackers to help in pass coverage that they’re not equipped to handle power running attacks.

That’s something that should continue for the Steelers in the second half of the season.

• Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow is 5-1 against non-AFC North teams this season. He’s thrown 13 touchdown passes and no interceptions in those games.

The Bengals are 0-3 against other AFC North teams and Burrow has thrown five touchdowns with six interceptions.

This week’s games

Bengals (minus 5) at Steelers: The Steelers dominated the Bengals in Week 1 but had to hold on for a 23-20 overtime win. That was in Cincinnati and the Steelers were 6-point underdogs. Now, they’re 5-point underdogs at home. The Steelers discovered something with their running game last week. I don’t see the Steelers sweeping the Bengals this season, though. Take the Steelers to cover in a 21-17 loss.

Browns (plus 8) at Bills (in Detroit): The Browns got smoked last week by a good offense in Miami. This week, they face another good offense in the Bills, who should be angry after losing to the Vikings and Jets in back-to-back games. Weather issues forced this game to be moved to Detroit, but that just means the Buffalo offense should be clicking against a bad Cleveland defense. Take the Bills, 31-17.

Panthers (plus 13) at Ravens: Baker Mayfield is back at quarterback for the Panthers after P.J. Walker was injured in Carolina’s last game. The Ravens know all about how to defend Mayfield. But 12 points is a lot in the NFL. Take the Panthers to cover in a 27-17 loss.

Rams (plus 4) at Saints: Is there a non-quarterback in the NFL who is more important to what his team does offensively than Cooper Kupp? We’re about to find out because Kupp is out. That doesn’t bode well for the defending Super Bowl champions. Take the Saints, 26-14

Cowboys (minus 1) at Vikings: The Vikings got a massive overtime win last week in Buffalo, while the Cowboys suffered a disappointing overtime loss at Green Bay. The tables get turned this week, as Dallas needs this win way more than Minnesota does. Take the Cowboys, 27-24.

Last Week: 5-0 ATS; 5-0 straight up.

Overall: 21-26-3 ATS; 30-20 straight up.