Steelers have look of an 11-win playoff team
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The rest of the world is finally catching up on the Steelers.
As regular readers of this column are aware, I’ve been bullish on this team since seeing what the Steelers put together this offseason.
Free agency and the draft were good to the Steelers. They then made it all the way through their offseason workouts, training camp and the preseason without any major injuries.
And after a dominant preseason performance that saw them roll though three opponents – albeit two of them against backups – the Steelers seem as ready as possible for what awaits in the regular season.
While there isn’t a lot to be gleaned from a 3-0 preseason, the fact that one of those wins came against the Buffalo Bills, who were playing their starters well into the second quarter of that game, bodes well.
The offense has looked much better than a year ago – albeit in the preseason. The defense should once again be one of the league’s best. And the special teams, with the addition of what looks to be a dynamic return guy in speedy Calvin Austin III, should be very good.
Given the schedule, which sets up nicely, this has the looks of a team that should win 11 games this season.
Some might look at that total and scoff given that the rest of the AFC North looks strong. But realize that just 35 percent of a Steelers’ schedule consists of divisional games. And last season, the entire AFC North went 3-3 against each other.
If the Steelers can match that record, or even go only 2-4 in the division, getting to 11 wins should be reachable because their non-division schedule consists of the likes of Houston, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Arizona and some of the other teams expected to make up the dregs of the NFL.
The only quarterbacks they face outside the division who were Pro Bowl players – a low bar to be sure these days – a year ago are Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence and Seattle’s Geno Smith.
So, yes, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and even Deshaun Watson present a big challenge in the division. But beyond those six games against those three players, the slate of quarterbacks the Steelers face isn’t all that difficult.
And if the Steelers can win 11 games, then they could steal the AFC North championship thanks to the three games against non-common opponents each team faces.
While the Steelers’ third-place schedule nets them games against the Raiders, Patriots and Aaron Rodgers-less Packers, the Bengals have to face the Bills, Chiefs and Vikings. Baltimore’s second-place schedule gets them games against the Lions, Chargers and Dolphins. Even Cleveland’s fourth-place schedule of non-common games of the Bears, Broncos and Jets looks more difficult given the upgrades those teams made this offseason.
But, that’s why they play the games.
Without any further ado, here are my picks for the playoffs and Super Bowl for the 2023 season.
AFC playoff teams: Kansas City, Buffalo, Cincinnati and Jacksonville as division winners. Pittsburgh, the Jets and Chargers as Wild Cards.
The Bills, Bengals and Steelers all advance out of the first round, with Kansas City then facing Cincinnati in the AFC Championship and the Bengals winning that.
NFC playoff teams: Philadelphia, New Orleans, San Francisco and Detroit as division winners. Seattle, Atlanta and Green Bay as Wild Cards.
The Saints, 49ers and Lions advance out of the first round, with Philadelphia beating Detroit in the NFC Championship.
That sets up a Philadelphia vs. Cincinnati Super Bowl, one the Eagles will win.
In each of the past three seasons, there have been seven new teams in the playoff field. The aforementioned playoff field only includes five teams that didn’t make it a year ago, so there could be some surprises.
But the bottom line is that the Steelers are a strong bet to make the playoffs in 2023, even though the betting odds are currently against that. And they shouldn’t just “sneak” in. If they can get to 11 wins, they’ll have a chance to not only be the No. 1 wildcard team, but perhaps even win the AFC North.
Will these predictions be right at the end of the season? We’ll see. But they have the same chance of being right as Jack Suwinski does of hitting a curveball from a left-hander. Maybe better.