Nov 24, 2023 5 min read

By Dale Lolley

For the Observer-Reporter

newsroom@observer-reporter.com

There’s a good chance the Steelers’ offense will look better moving forward. And it probably would have done that under the direction of Matt Canada as well.

Aaron Schatz of FTN Fantasy came up with the analytics-driven formula he calls DVOA (Defensive Value Over Average) to measure just how good a team really is. It takes into account not only how you play, but who you play, when you play them and who is or is not playing in that game.

Per Schatz’s DVOA rankings, the Steelers’ offense is 11th-best in the NFL. A big part of that is because of two factors. The first is that the Steelers lead the NFL in fewest turnovers with 8. The second is their resurgent running game, which has averaged 181.0 yards per game over the past three weeks.

But perhaps the factor nobody thinks about is the third one. And it’s important. Per Schatz, the Steelers have faced the third-hardest schedule of defenses since he began tracking such things in 1981.

In their 10 games, the Steelers have faced a defense ranked in the top 8 in DVOA five times (Cleveland twice, Baltimore, San Francisco and Jacksonville). When you consider the Steelers’ defense is ranked seventh in defensive DVOA and they can’t face their own defense, that becomes even more stark.

The Steelers face only one more defense that ranks in the top 13. And that is Baltimore in Week 18.

The Steelers have made a change at offensive coordinator, going from Canada to running backs coach Eddie Faulkner devising the game plan and quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan calling the plays. The guess here is that it will show some different results.

But there’s a good chance the offense would have looked better over the next six weeks regardless of who was calling the plays.

The resurgence in the running game has coincided with an increase in usage in recent weeks of not only Najee Harris, but also Jaylen Warren.

Harris has 44 carries for 186 yards over the past three games, which would work out to just over 1,000 yards over the course of a season.

Warren, meanwhile, has been incredibly hot. He’s gained 318 yards on 35 carries in the past three games. That works out to just over 1,800 yards over the course of a full season at 9.1 yards per carry.

To expect Warren to continue at that pace is probably unrealistic. But there’s no reason to think that duo will get slowed down this week against Cincinnati. The Bengals are 31st in the NFL at stopping the run and are one of only two teams allowing five or more yards per rushing attempt.

“We need both of them to win,” said Faulkner. “It’s really that simple to me. And so that’s what we’ll continue to do.”

Warren has raised his per-carry average to an NFL-best 6.2 yards. If he leads the NFL in yards per attempt, then he would be the first Steelers player to do so since Johnny Clement in 1947.

This week’s games

Steelers (minus 1) at Bengals: The Steelers’ offense will look better this week, not necessarily because of a change of offensive coordinators, but because Cincinnati’s defense isn’t good. The Bengals allow 386 yards per game. Only the Chargers and Broncos are worse. The Bengals have been good at forcing turnovers – like the Steelers – but without Joe Burrow, they’ll turn it over themselves. Take the Steelers, 24-10.

Browns (plus 2½) at Broncos: The Steelers loaded up to slow Cleveland’s running game last week and that worked. But Cleveland’s defense was good enough to win that game on its own. Cleveland is allowing 175.7 yards and 10.1 points per game at home, 344.8 yards and 29.8 points on the road. And Denver is playing better than it did earlier in the season. Take the Broncos, 16-10.

Ravens (minus 3½) at Chargers: The Chargers should move the ball against the Ravens, but the Ravens will definitely move the ball against Los Angeles’ Swiss cheese defense, which allows almost 292 passing yards per game. And the Chargers don’t have Joey Bosa, who went on IR this week. Take the Ravens, 29-24.

Chiefs (minus 9) at Raiders: We love South Fayette product Justin Watson. He’s one of the great football success stories in the area and has won a couple of Super Bowl rings. But he led the Chiefs with 11 targets in Monday night’s loss to the Eagles, two more than Travis Kelce. The Chiefs should win this game, but the Raiders are playing better and should keep it within the spread. Take the Raiders to cover in a 24-17 loss.

Saints (minus 1) at Falcons: Both teams are coming off a bye week. The Falcons have decided to go back to Desmond Ridder at quarterback. That will be troublesome against the New Orleans defense. Take the Saints, 20-17.

Last Week: 2-3 ATS; 3-2 straight up

Overall: 31-22-2 ATS; 35-20 straight up