Feb 9, 2024 5 min read

By Dale Lolley

For the Observer-Reporter

One of the most oft-repeated questions surrounding the Steelers in recent years has involved Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

That question is, “Do the Steelers have a quarterback capable of going into Kansas City and beating Mahomes in the playoffs?”

It’s a valid question. But it’s also a loaded question. It’s not strictly a Steelers issue. It’s become an NFL issue.

To this point in his career, few have shown the capability of beating Mahomes in Kansas City or elsewhere.

With Kansas City’s three wins in this postseason, Mahomes is 14-3 in his playoff career. He’s lost to Tom Brady twice and Joe Burrow once. That’s all.

Mahomes is 1-3 against Brady and Burrow. He’s 13-0 against everyone else in the postseason, including Buffalo’s Josh Allen, against whom he is 3-0. In this year’s playoffs, he beat Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa, Allen and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson to reach the Super Bowl for the fourth time in his six years as Kansas City’s starter.

And he even answered any questions about whether he would be able to go on the road and win big games, leading the Chiefs to victories in Buffalo and Baltimore in back-to-back weekends.

The point is, does anyone have a quarterback who can consistently go into Kansas City and beat the Chiefs?

Brady is retired, so he won’t get the opportunity to do so again. Burrow has done it once, but also lost in another attempt.

Much like beating Brady throughout the course of his career was a tall task, so too is beating Mahomes and the Chiefs.

But that doesn’t mean that teams shouldn’t try or that it can’t be done. The Steelers won two Super Bowls and went to another during Brady’s time in New England. If not for the presence of Brady, then they might have gone to more Super Bowls.

The key is understanding that you’re going to have to play a complete game to do so. Your quarterback likely isn’t going to outplay Mahomes. So the rest of your team had better outplay the other 52 players on the roster.

• To put Mahomes’ 14 career playoff wins in perspective, he’s already tied with Terry Bradshaw, Peyton Manning and John Elway for the third-most postseason victories.

He needs two more to catch Joe Montana for second-most in NFL history. Brady leads with an astounding 35.

With 17 career playoff games, Mahomes has played the equivalent of a full NFL season. In those games, he’s passed for 4,802 yards with 39 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions. Unlike a regular season, however, he’s posted those numbers playing against the league’s top teams in every game.

• Allen’s 0-3 record against the Chiefs in the playoffs shows just how difficult it is to win playoff games.

Allen is 5-2 in the postseason against everyone else. But thus far, Mahomes has been his foil. Despite that, there are about 25 teams in the NFL who would gladly take Allen as their quarterback.

• South Fayette’s Justin Watson will be appearing in his third Super Bowl since 2020. And maybe he’s a key factor.

Watson, who began his career with Tampa Bay, was with the Bucs in 2020 when they won a Super Bowl. The wide receiver, however, didn’t have a catch in that game.

He did have two receptions for 18 yards in last year’s Super Bowl win by the Chiefs over the Eagles.

Watson has three receptions for 36 yards in this postseason.

Watson has been active for six playoff games in his career. His teams have won all six of those games.

Watson’s over-under for yards in this game is 17.5, while his prop for receptions is 1.5. You also can Watson at plus-$3,500 to score a touchdown in this game.

Watson had his most productive season for Kansas City this year, catching 27 passes for 460 yards and three touchdowns.

• With the NFL announcing this week that the Eagles will be the home team for a game in Sao Paulo, Brazil on the opening weekend next season, the Steelers remain in play for an international game in 2024.

The Steelers are one of nine teams that are scheduled to play at Philadelphia in 2024. Two of those other teams – Carolina and Jacksonville – are already slated to host international games and are unlikely to be chosen for another. Atlanta, one of Philadelphia’s other home opponents, went overseas in 2023.

The league also rarely has divisional games take place internationally.That has happened only seven times in 44 international games.

If the league doesn’t want teams to play two international games and also doesn’t want such a game to be against a division rival, that would leave the Steelers, Browns and Packers as potential opponents for the Eagles in Brazil.

This week’s game

49ers (minus 2½ ) vs. Chiefs: Given his playoff performances over his career, it’s hard to go against Mahomes, even against a well-rounded team such as the 49ers. San Francisco is more talented than Kansas City with the exception of a couple of key areas – quarterback and offensive line. Mahomes just doesn’t make mistakes in big games. That could be the difference – if his teammates don’t make the big mistake. The key will be not allowing San Francisco’s inside linebacker duo of Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw to make too many plays. They’re the best off-ball linebacker duo in the NFL. San Francisco kicker Jake Moody also is shaky, especially when compared to Kansas City’s Harrison Butker. I’ll take the points here in what should be a good game. Take the Chiefs, 27-24

Last week: 2-0 ATS; 2-0 straight up

Overall: 59-39-3 ATS; 67-34 straight up

Dale Lolley hosts The Drive on Steelers Nation Radio and writes a Sunday column for the Observer-Reporter.