Oct 24, 2014 3 min read

Kenneth Medlock III opened with an observation that was certainly near to most inside Yost Auditorium, dear to many and obvious to anyone familiar with the impact the oil and gas industry had over the past decade.

“Probably the most important issue in the global gas market is U.S. shale,” he said. “If you step back 10 years and look at the projections, then fast forward to today, you will see how dramatically different the two are.”

In other words, production here in Marcellus and shale formations elsewhere across the nation boomed beyond anything forecast in 2004, driving this nation toward lower prices and energy independence.

Medlock, senior director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University, was the featured speaker Wednesday night in the W&J Energy Lecture Series. “Global Gas Markets in Transition” was the topic of the second lecture this school year, conducted as always in the Burnett Center on the Washington & Jefferson College campus.

Via PowerPoint, Medlock showed several graphs detailing how far off energy production and price projections proved to be over time. He also displayed photos of the Earth at night, the white areas being regions of heavy light usage.

He pointed out many densely populated areas, especially outside the United States, were black, indicating an energy shortage. The United States, with large surpluses of natural gas and coal, is exporting these sources and, in the future, may do so in larger quantities.

“Demand will continue to grow, driven largely by very populous areas,” Medlock said.

The continued use of coal, domestically and abroad, was a projection he did not dispute. China, Medlock said, relied upon that fossil fuel with a bad name – because of high carbon dioxide emissions.

“The infrastructure in China has been deployed around coal,” he said. “Will China switch away or upgrade its environmental controls?”

Following his lecture, Medlock had an interesting Q&A with audience members. One asked the professor his opinion about the impact a severance tax would have on natural gas prices if it were adopted in Pennsylvania.

“If a severance tax is in line with severance taxes in other states,” Medlock said, “it would not have much impact. The returns in Marcellus Shale are high.”

Another asked whether prices from production in Utica Shale would be similar to those in Marcellus.

“Yes,” Medlock said. “I see a slower pace (in production). It wouldn’t be as large as Marcellus, but it will happen.”

The session ended with a query about battery technology, which is necessary for the storage of renewables. The goal of many nations is to increase the use of energy sources such as solar and wind.

“Battery technology is possibly the largest game-changer over the next few decades,” Medlock said. “It would change everything, but it takes time to implement. It’s a two- to three-decade process.”

The third event in the series will feature the documentary film “Switch” at 6:30 p.m. Nov. 18 inside Yost Auditorium. The producers, Harry Lynch and Scott Tinker, examine energy-related transitions that the world has to make. W&J professor Mark Swift will lead a discussion afterward.