Nov 2, 2014 5 min read

Depending on your perspective, either “Manhattan Love Story” or “Mulaney” was the first cancellation of the 2014-15 television season.

ABC formally axed “Manhattan Love Story” late last month while a few days earlier, Fox simply stopped ordering additional scripts for “Mulaney,” which in effect meant it was canceled. Both join the infamous list of recent “first cancellations” that include “The Beautiful Life” (2009), “Lone Star” (2010), “The Playboy Club” (2011) “Made in Jersey” (2012) and “Lucky 7” (2013).

By the way, I don’t have those shows committed to memory. They’re just a part of the burgeoning television trivia trove that is becoming every bit as minute and annoying as baseball statistics. I don’t care about the average date of the first cancellation since 2000, the network with the highest percentage of cancellations since 2010, or the average number of episodes aired before the first cancellation since 1954. But those statistics are now as available as the baseball team with the lowest percentage of strikeouts on a 3-2 pitch after the eighth inning in September night games on the East Coast.

Unfortunately, the seemingly simple math of determining which shows will be axed has become increasingly complicated. Overnight ratings are a mere part of the formula that includes three-day delayed viewing, seven-day delayed viewing, demographic information and the night on which a show aired. Much of that information isn’t available for weeks after the original broadcast, which is why the networks have swung the ax slower than usual in recent years.

For instance, here are the top 10 shows in total viewers for the week of Oct. 26: “Thursday Night Football,” “Sunday Night Football,” “NCIS,” “NCIS: New Orleans,” “Big Bang Theory,” “60 Minutes,” “World Series Game 2,” “World Series Game 5,” “Dancing with the Stars” and “World Series Game 1.”

Stripped to the only numbers networks care about (viewers ages 18-49) and the top 10 are “Sunday Night Football,” “Thursday Night Football,” “Big Bang Theory,” “World Series Game 2,” “World Series Game 1,” “The Voice,” “Modern Family,” “Football Night in America,” “Scandal” and “How To Get Away with Murder.”

Those stats are then merged with delayed viewing numbers, which networks get about two weeks later. These are the newest “Live +7 days” ratings (Oct 7 -12). The number in parenthesis indicates total viewers for live and delayed viewing:

“NCIS” (21.61 million), “Big Bang Theory” (20.85), “NCIS: New Orleans” (18.51), Sunday Night Football (18.18), “Scorpion” (16.54), “Blacklist” (16.5), “How To Get Away With Murder” (16.31), Thursday Night Football (16.14), “Modern Family” (15.18) and Sunday Night Football Pre-kick (14.86).

The Xfinity on Demand numbers arrive even later, but they do bring to light some shows that viewers evidently like, but are quite content to watch on their own schedule. It also includes cable shows, thus offering an across-the board perspective. For the week of Sept. 28, the top 10 were “How To Get Away with Murder,” ‘Gotham,” “Scandal,” “Big Bang Theory,” “Family Guy,” “Blacklist,” “Scorpon,” “Sons of Anarchy,” “The Strain” and “Stalker.”

Needless to say, “Manhattan Love Story” and “Mulaney” were cellar dwellers on all those lists. Nonetheless, the long wait for the total viewer count (and subsequent cancellations and full-season renewals) is making life more complicated for the average viewer trying to determine what to watch. While I’ll sample any show that appears to be interesting or has received critical acclaim from sources I respect, I generally then put those series on hold until the network green-lights them for an entire season. I’ve been burned too many times to invest in characters or story arcs that are suddenly pulled off the air.

With that in mind, begin your binge viewing of these series. All have now been assured of a full season.

ABC: “blackish,” “How to Get Away with Murder”

CBS: “Scorpion,” “NCIS: New Orleans,” “Madam Secretary” “Stalker”

CW: “Flash,” “Jane The Virgin”

Fox: “Gotham”

NBC: “Mysteries of Laura”

You may notice that there’s just one sitcom on the list. That’s because from A to Z – pun intended – sitcoms are struggling.

While dramas are doing significantly better than sitcoms, one renewal was nonetheless surprising. “Mysteries of Laura” attracts a significantly older audience than the others and that usually signals cancellation. The other surprise – for a completely different reason – was CBS’s quick renewal to all of its new dramas. With that wealth of hits, where will it schedule its new “Battle Creek” or “CSIL Cyber”? And what happens to “The Mentalist”?

Some have suggested an early exit for the original “CSI,” but it’s doubtful CBS would pull the plug on such an iconic show without significant promotion of a final episode and the accompanying ratings spike.

What shows are in trouble? Well, with a typical 60 percent failure rate (TV statistics strike again!), and based on all of the above viewing information, we suspect these shows will disappear soon:

ABC: “selfie,” “Forever,” “Resurrection”

Fox: “Red Band Society”

NBC: “A to Z,” “Bad Judge.”

Those are the series most likely to disappear, be moved to Saturdays or slated for marathon (burn-off) runs during the two-week holiday break. And to show up on DVD as “complete series” sometime in January.

Terry Hazlett can be reached at snowballrizzo@aol.com.