Oct 31, 2015 4 min read

Ben Roethlisberger is back.

Typically, that is something about which Steelers fans can rejoice. And they are this week as Pittsburgh heads into a three-game home stretch starting today against the Cincinnati Bengals.

But there is some reason for caution.

Roethlisberger has returned from an injury six other times in his career. Pittsburgh’s record in those games is just 2-4.

Those other injuries, had far different circumstances.

First, Roethlisberger has the best offensive talent surrounding him since perhaps his rookie season in 2004, when he had Hines Ward, Plaxico Burress and Antwaan Randle El in their primes and a running back group that included Jerome Bettis, Duce Staley and Willie Parker.

Then, there’s the fact Roethlisberger has been practicing on at least a limited basis for three weeks, something he was unable to do following previous injuries.

It might take him a series or two to reacquaint himself with the speed of the game, but that shouldn’t be a determining factor in whether or not the Steelers win or lose.

The Cincinnati Bengals will have everything to do with that.

The Bengals are 6-0 and one of five unbeaten teams in the NFL – the most perfect teams this late in the season in league history.

History tells us those unbeaten teams will begin to fall by the wayside. The past 11 teams to be 6-0 – including New England Thursday night – went 4-7 against the spread in their seventh game.

Part of that is because they lost betting value as they continued to win. It’s also extremely difficult to win each week in the NFL, where the difference in talent – even between the best and worst teams – is not large.

The Bengals are a very good team with perhaps the best overall talent in the AFC, if not the NFL. But they have a phobia when it comes to the Steelers.

Pittsburgh has won eight of the 10 previous meetings and 12 of 16 since Mike Tomlin became Pittsburgh’s head coach in 2007.

The line on the game opened with Cincinnati favored by 1 ½. That flipped to the Steelers favored by the same margin. Now, the Bengals are 1-point favorites.

The Steelers are 7-4 against the spread against teams coming off a bye, as Cincinnati is, over the past 10 seasons.

They should make that 8-4.

Take the Steelers to win a shootout, 33-30

Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is 7-0 straight up and 4-3 against the spread as a touchdown or more favorite against NFC South opponents.

Take Atlanta, 30-17

The Giants are 29th in total defense, 30th in pass defense and 31st in sacks.

Take New Orleans, 30-24

The Vikings haven’t won at Soldier Field since 2007. They break that streak.

Take Minnesota, 26-21

Peyton Manning as a home underdog? He’s played that poorly.

Take Green Bay, 27-23

Indianapols is 3-0 against the AFC South, winless against everyone else.

Take Carolina, 27-17

Matt Cassel against Seattle’s defense? Please.

Take Seattle, 24-17

This is a big spread, even for an offensively challenged 49ers club,

Take San Francisco to cover in a 23-16 loss

The Chiefs continue their climb to relevancy, in England.

Take Kansas City, 27-20

Arizona makes its second trip East in three weeks, but the Browns’ defense can’t stop the run.

Take Arizona, 31-20

The Ravens are 0-2 at home. The Chargers are 0-2 on the road.

Take San Diego to cover in a 24-23 loss

Beware the upset. The Raiders have at least two takeaways in five consecutive games.

Take Oakland, 24-20

Tennessee’s not very good, as expected. The Texans? Bill O’Brien should start polishing up the résumé.

Take Houston, 21-16

Last Week: 5-8 ATS; 7-6 Straight up

Overall: 54-43-3 ATS; 69-30 Straight up

F. Dale Lolley can be reached at dlolley@observer-reporter.com.