Jan 15, 2016 5 min read

It didn’t pay to be a home team last week in the playoffs as all four home teams lost in the opening round for the first time in NFL history.

Can lightning strike twice?

Since the NFL went to its current playoff format in 1990, the teams seeded first and second in each conference have made the championship game 25 times. That’s exactly half of the time.

So, in theory, the top two seeds should advance this weekend in at least one of the two conferences.

Of course, in the AFC, there might not be a true No. 1 seed. Case and point, going into the final two weeks of play top-seeded Denver could have finished anywhere from No. 1 to out of the playoffs.

The Steelers head to Denver as surprising 7 1/2-point underdogs. It’s surprising because the Steelers beat the Broncos (34-27) earlier this season – albeit in Pittsburgh – coming back from a 27-10 halftime deficit.

But that game featured a healthy Ben Roethlisberger, who suffered a sprained shoulder in Pittsburgh’s 18-16 win last weekend at Cincinnati. He’ll play in this game, but how effective he can be, especially without leading receiver Antonio Brown and leading rusher DeAngelo Williams, is in question.

Brown, the Steelers’ MVP and NFL receptions leader, was declared out of this game with a concussion suffered at the end of the game at Cincinnati. Williams will miss his second consecutive game with a sprained foot.

The Steelers have overcome injuries perhaps better than any team in the league, but the tipping point might have been reached.

With the Steelers unable to generate a running game (23 yards) in the first meeting, the game was put in Roethlisberger’s hands. He completed 40 of 55 passes for 380 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions with much of the damage being done by Brown (16 catches, 189 yards and two scores).

Roethlisberger’s shoulder injury should preclude the Steelers from attacking the Broncos in a similar fashion. He can’t be expected to effectively throw the ball another 55 times.

Brock Osweiller started the previous meeting at quarterback for Denver and was great in the first half, throwing three touchdown passes and running for another, and terrible in the second half, when he was 7 of 26 for 82 yards with an interception.

The Broncos have now gone back to Peyton Manning at quarterback. Five years ago, that would have meant something. Heck, two years ago, Manning could still strike fear into opponents.

As for this 39-year-old version? Not so much.

Manning threw nine touchdown passes and 17 interceptions in nine starts before being benched in favor of Osweiller. And Manning really struggled at home, throwing one touchdown pass and eight interceptions.

Manning’s a future first-ballot Hall of Famer, but he certainly hasn’t played like it this season. And he does have a history of failure in the postseason. His teams have lost their first playoff game nine times, five more than any other quarterback in the Super Bowl era.

The story of this game will be Denver’s defense and how well it handles a wounded Steelers offense.

For the Steelers to have a chance to win, their defense must stop Denver’s running game and force Manning into committing turnovers. He has shown that tendency. Then again, so has Roethlisberger.

With the key pieces missing, the Steelers deserve to be the underdogs. While I don’t think they will win, that might be too many points for an offensively challenged Denver squad.

Take the Steelers to cover in a 20-16 loss

The Patriots are rested but the offensive line is still a mess. Kansas City has the pass rushers to take advantage. Since 2001, the Patriots are 11-0 in games against postseason opponents that they are playing for the first time in that season. They are 10-8 when they already have an opponent. The Patriots and Chiefs didn’t play each other this season, so…

Take New England, 24-17

These teams met a couple of weeks ago in Arizona and the Cardinals destroyed the Packers, 38-8. The Cardinals sacked Aaron Rodgers nine times. Hard to see this one being much different with the Cardinals coming in rested.

Take Arizona, 31-13

Another rematch, though like the Steelers’ game against the Broncos, in a different venue. Carolina went to Seattle in Oct. 18 and won, 27-23. Carolina scored touchdowns on its final two possessions – including the game-winning score with 23 seconds remaining – to erase a 24-13 deficit. Seattle has played well in recent weeks but squeaked by last week at Minnesota. Carolina is missing two of its top three cornerbacks. That will be the difference.

Take Seattle, 24-20

Last week: 0-4 ATS; 2-2 Straight up

Overall: 122-115-5 ATS; 152-90 Straight up

F. Dale Lolley can be reached at dlolley@observer-reporter.com.