Apr 2, 2017 4 min read

I’m told there are some out there who doubt my prognosticative ability.

Well, put the coffee cup down, take a break from reading the morning newspaper and let me ask you this.

Who was the man who predicted South Carolina would be a Final Four team in the NCAA tournament, and who said former Pitt coach Jamie Dixon would win an NIT title, or that Duquesne, the worst program in major college basketball history of late, would hire a capable head coach in Keith Dambrot of Akron?

OK, it wasn’t me.

But who predicted the Dallas Cowboys would strike gold with a fourth-round quarterback in Dak Prescott or the New England Patriots, hated by every respectable Pittsburgh Steelers fan, would overcome a massive deficit at halftime and beat the Atlanta Falcons in the Super Bowl?

Again, not me.

But, wait.

Who, on a local level, said Trinity High School’s girls basketball team would make program history by earning a spot in the PIAA Class 5-A finals against Archbishop Wood, or that Spencer Lee, the great wrestler from Franklin Regional High School, would never trail in a match he competed in throughout his varsity career until the final second? And that it would cost him not only a fourth PIAA title but an undefeated record.

All right, I was slightly off there.

If your memories are short, and I’m banking on that, then you might recall I used all my cognitive powers – and a Wham-O Ouija board – to make the prediction last year that the Pirates would win 92 games.

Hey, I was off by only a little.

Like the Black Knight in the movie “Monte Python and the Holy Grail,” I will continue to battle on no matter how many devastating blows I receive.

It’s what I do.

It’s what I get paid to do.

So I am confident in my talents for reasonable deduction when evaluating this year’s Pirates team. I am drawing on my deductive powers that led me to say in 2014, “Here comes 100 losses for the Pirates.”

OK, my bad. They went 88-74.

I have reached out to outside sources, calling on a noted medium, Velma of Ventura, Calif., who for just a dollar a minute during our phone conversation, managed to give me her feelings on how this year’s Pirates team will fare.

It only cost me $49.99.

Pouring over numerous preseason publications, scouring the Internet for injury reports and checking out the dozens of betting lines, I have come to this conclusion on this team.

The Pirates will win 87 games. . .

If Gerrit Cole stays healthy and is productive.

He is the key, and so far has not lived up to the superstar status everyone expected of him last year. He has shown brittleness, which is disturbing. When on, he is terrific. The Pirates have to have terrific.

A healthy and productive Cole, from the No. 1 starter spot on the pitching staff, means the Pirates will compete for a wild-card spot. That probably means catching the St. Louis Cardinals. It can’t happen with Cole on the disabled list for a month.

Forget about trading outfielder Andrew McCutchen and don’t worry that third baseman Jung Ho Kang is gone, probably for the season. They won’t determine the Pirates’ fate as much as Cole.

Cole can make the pitching staff miles better simply by living up to expectations. Jameson Taillon and Ivan Nova holding down the Nos. 2 and 3 spots, and the back end of the rotation – Chad Kuhl and Tyler Glasnow – give the Pirates a strong staff, for the money.

It’s not as good as the Chicago Cubs, but look what Cleveland nearly did to that staff in the World Series.

A strong season by Cole means the Pirates are a playoff team.

Trust me.

Have I ever been wrong?

Assistant sports editor Joe Tuscano can be reached at jtuscano@observer-reporter.com.