Feb 4, 2017 3 min read

New England vs. Atlanta in the Super Bowl hasn’t exactly generated much interest outside of the fan bases of those two teams.

It’s a David vs. Goliath matchup, with the upstart Falcons playing the part of the young shepherd.

Only this David has a little more in its arsenal than a rock.

The Falcons have offensive stars that surely made coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots more than a little nervous as they designed a gam plan.

Quarterback Matt Ryan had an MVP season, throwing 38 touchdowns against just seven interceptions. Julio Jones might be the best wide receiver in the NFL and the running back combo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman produced 1,599 rushing yards, 19 touchdowns and 85 passreceptions for another 882 yards and five scores.

The Falcons have an outstanding offense.

What they don’t have is a defense to match.

Atlanta ranked 25th in yards allowed and 27th in scoring defense. That unit turned every game into a shootout.

That is the only way the Falcons will have a chance to beat New England.

And trying to win a shootout against Tom Brady is akin to trying to win a land war in Asia. At some point, you’re going to get bogged down.

New England’s defense led the NFL in fewest points allowed.

It’s not a shutdown unit but it does a good job of winning on third down and in the red zone.

And that will be the difference in this Super Bowl. The Falcons averaged nearly 34 points per game, but New England wasn’t far behind at just under 28 points.

The Patriots’ defense should get enough stops to allow their offense to take advantage of the matchup problems Atlanta will have with New England’s receivers.

New England is favored by 3 points and should cover that spread, barely.

Here are other picks on some prop bets for the game:

• Ryan, over 310.5 passing yards. Ryan averaged 309 yards per game and had 338 and 392 yards in Atlanta’s two playoff wins. He’ll have to keep throwing to keep the Falcons in this one.

• LeGarrette Blount will score a touchdown. The Falcons allowed 15 rushing touchdowns in the regular season and Blount has scored in 14 of New England’s 18 games. There’s some juice involved in this one (minus-150) but it looks like a winner. Blount also is plus-800 to score the game’s first touchdown, which is not bad odds.

• Will Brady or Ryan break the Super Bowl record of 415 passing yards? No at minus-700. The plus-400 bet makes this attractive, but Brady has thrown for 415 or more yards only once in the past three years. Ryan did it one time this season.

• Brady or Ryan will win the MVP award. Brady is the best bet at plus-120 and Ryan isn’t far behind at plus-200. Considering quarterbacks have won seven of the past 10 MVP awards and 27 of 50 overall, the trend shows that the MVP will be one of those two.

• Julian Edelman over 7 1/2 catches at plus-160. Since Rob Gronkowski was hurt, Edleman has topped 7 1/2 catches in six of nine games.

Take New England, 31-27

Last week: 1-1 ATS; Straight up: 1-1

Overall: 127-113-5 ATS; 152-91-2 Straight up

Dale Lolley can be reached at dlolley@observer-reporter.com.