Dec 15, 2023 5 min read

The NFL schedule makers fell into a perfect scenario. And it likely wasn’t even planned.

Heading into Week 14 of the NFL season, only two teams are eliminated from playoff contention.

In the AFC, 11 teams are within three games of the top overall seed with four games remaining. Take that a step further, nine teams in the AFC have either 7 or 8 wins.

In the NFC, it’s a little more thinned out, but seven teams are sitting with 6 or 7 wins and firmly in playoff contention. The Bears, at 5-8, currently have the 5th pick in the next NFL Draft. And they’re one game out of a playoff spot.

The beauty of it – and the league couldn’t have had this turn out better if it had planned it – is that many of the teams in contention play against each other over the final four weeks. That makes each of those games essentially playoff games.

The winners keep themselves solidly in playoff position while the losers take a big hit.

That’s highlighted by the Steelers’ schedule.

Not only do they play the Indianapolis Colts Saturday, they also host the Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) next Saturday before traveling to Seattle (6-7) the following week and finishing up their season at Baltimore (10-3) in Week 18.

• With Miami losing Monday night to Tennessee, the Baltimore Ravens have a firm grip on the top seed in the AFC. And if they beat Jacksonville this week and then the Dolphins in Week 17, they could go into their Week 18 game against the Steelers with the No. 1 seed wrapped up.

It would be interesting to see how Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh would handle that situation.

In 2003, the Ravens had the division title wrapped up and couldn’t improve their playoff standing heading into the regular season finale against a 6-win Steelers team.

Then-head coach Brian Billick decided to play his starters, not only in an effort to win the game, but to get running back Jamal Lewis a 2,000-yard rushing season.

The Ravens won the game, 13-10, in overtime, as Lewis rushed for 114 yards on 27 bruising carries.

But the results didn’t work out for Baltimore. After being taxed against the Steelers, the Ravens lost the following Saturday in the opening round of the playoffs to the Titans, 20-17.

The Steelers, meanwhile, fell to the 11th pick in the draft with the loss and selected quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in the first round.

Had the Steelers won that game against Baltimore, they would have picked a couple of spots later and likely would have had to move up to get Roethlisberger. The Buffalo Bills, who picked 13th that year – two spots behind the Steelers – had Roethlisberger in their sights.

• I caught up with Langeloth native and Burgettstown High School graduate Barry Alvarez recently, and he is enjoying his retirement.

Alvarez and his wife, Cindy, spend their winters in Naples, Fla., and they like to travel to see their grandsons’ football games in the fall. Of course, one grandson, Jake Ferguson, is a tight end for the Dallas Cowboys while two others were playing high school and youth football in the Charleston, S.C., area.

“I follow my grandkids around now,” Alvarez said.

The former Wisconsin head football coach and athletic director spent time working as an advisor for the Big Ten following his retirement from Wisconsin, but stepped away from that a couple of years ago.

This week’s games

Bears (plus 3½) at Browns: The Bears have won three of their past four games, including an impressive win last week over the Lions. Cleveland’s defense, which has been much better at home, will struggle with the athleticism of Justin Fields. The Browns should win, but it will be closer than many think. Take the Bears to cover in a 17-14 loss.

Ravens (minus 3½) at Jaguars: If Trevor Lawrence was 100 percent healthy this might be more of a contest, but with Lawrence playing on one leg against Baltimore’s pass rush, that probably won’t be the case. Take the Ravens, 26-20.

Broncos (plus 4) at Lions: Detroit has been scuffling of late. But a home game against the Broncos might be what the doctor ordered. Denver has slowed things down and limiting what it’s asking of Russell Wilson, both to help its defense and Wilson. But the Broncos have struggled against tight ends, and Detroit’s Sam LaPorta will be a handful. Take the Lions, 24-16.

Cowboys (plus 2½) at Bills: The Cowboys just won an emotional game against the Eagles, but the Bills did the same in a win at Kansas City. Buffalo needs a win to keep pace in the AFC wild card race, while the Cowboys need a win to stay atop the NFC East. Take the Cowboys, 27-24.

Texans (plus 2) at Titans: If C.J. Stroud were starting this game for the Texans, they would be favored. As it is, it will be Davis Mills in place of Stroud, who suffered a concussion last week against the Jets. Take the Titans, 23-16.

Last Week: 3-2 ATS; 4-1 straight up

Overall: 40-28-2 ATS; 45-25 straight up

Dale Lolley hosts The Drive on Steelers Nation Radio and writes a Sunday column for the Observer-Reporter.