Jul 15, 2013 3 min read

TEHRAN, Iran – Mock condolences arriving by text message in Iran announce the political “death” of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Memorial services, the joke continues, are planned at the United Nations in tribute to his swaggering style each year in New York.

The satire may bring smirks from the many foes Ahmadinejad has racked up over eight years in office, stemming from several high-profile feuds with the ruling clerics and one disputed re-election. But no one is truly counting Ahmadinejad out of Iran’s political future, which could face some bumpy times as he decides his next moves and his opponents plot possible payback.

One way or another, the combative and polarizing aura of the soon-to-be former president is not going to dissipate once his centrist successor, Hasan Rouhani, is sworn in Aug. 4.

Ahmadinejad has remained evasive on his post-presidential plans.

Speculation, however, is fanning out in several directions, including media boss and freelance statesman. A trip to Iraq this week – one of his last major moments in the spotlight as president – will be watched closely for clues on his next moves.

“The only thing that’s certain at this point is that Ahmadinejad and his team are just not going to pack up and go away,” said Rasool Nafisi, an Iranian affairs analyst at Strayer University in Virginia. “Iran’s political system has to be prepared for that.”

This is what makes Ahmadinejad’s departure such a potential shock to Iran’s system.

Since turbulent shakeouts immediately after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran’s other former presidents have remained rooted in the system.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who left the presidency in 1989, rose to become supreme leader. “However much Ahmadinejad may resist, though, there is the reality that he will no longer be president and the world’s attention will shift to his successor,” said the professor, Nafisi. “It began happening the moment Rouhani was elected.”

When Ahmadinejad returned earlier this month from a trip to Moscow, only a small group of supporters came to Tehran’s airport to welcome him. In the past, hundreds of people often crowded similar arrivals home.

Meanwhile, Rouhani has been embraced by Iran’s fast-moving street culture in ways never open to Ahmadinejad.

The phrase “Rouhani, mochakerim,” or “Thank you, Rouhani,” has become a catchall term for hope, achievements and complaints about Iran’s sanctions-shattered economy. It’s also a backhanded way for Ahmadinejad’s opponents to bid him goodbye.

The quip first surfaced just days after the June 14 election when Iran’s soccer team qualified for the 2014 World Cup after beating South Korea. It then went viral on Farsi websites.

This month, a hip-hop audio clip carried the refrain “Rouhani, mochakerim.” The Tehran weekly, Hamshahri Javan, printed many of the Internet messages in graffiti style on its front page. One pointed out the major economic challenges ahead: “Inflation declined to zero, Rouhani, mochakerim.” On Sunday, Iran’s Central Bank put the inflation rate at nearly 36 percent.

Later, one blog post tried to put some perspective on the transition from Ahmadinejad to Rouhani.

“We ask Rouhani to explain to the people that he is a president,” it said, “not Harry Potter.”