Feb 29, 2016 3 min read

With 24 states voting in presidential primaries or caucuses today, Pennsylvanians may be wondering if their votes count when they head to the polls April 26.

According to California University of Pennsylvania adjunct professor and former state senator Michael Dawida, the state has historically not been a deciding factor in presidential primaries – but that could change this year.

“It’s almost never been important, because we’re late,” Dawida said.

Primary dates are chosen at the state level. Traditionally, Pennsylvania’s primaries were held on the third Tuesday in May.

However, the timing was changed by former state representative David W. Sweet, who pushed for the primary to be moved to April to allow for the state to be more of a part of the process, Dawida said.

Even with an earlier date, Dawida said Pennsylvania has not been important in choosing a presidential primary candidate since the 1960s, when presidential nominees were chosen at conventions.

But 2016 is a different story.

“This year, there is a chance we will be relevant,” Dawida said. The reason is the degree of uncertainty for both parties.

Even with Donald Trump’s recent victories in Nevada, South Carolina and New Hampshire, Dawida notes there is still a possibility there will not be a definite Republican winner by Pennsylvania’s primary April 26.

At Thursday night’s debate, Trump’s top challengers, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, ramped up their attacks on the GOP front-runner in an attempt to stifle his rise. Whether or not their methods will be effective will be determined by Tuesday’s results.

For Democrats, Pennsylvania may be involved in the decision because of the strength of Bernie Sanders’ campaign.

“Bernie has been much stronger than people expected, so right now it’s pretty much a dead heat,” Dawida said.

Sanders has exceeded expectations, and unless Hillary Clinton pulls an overwhelming majority of votes before Pennsylvania, the state primary could be a factor in choosing a Democratic candidate. Though Saturday night’s win in South Carolina might seem like Clinton has quashed Sanders’ momentum, there’s plenty of time and several races before Pennsylvania.

“By the time we get to the Pennsylvania primary, usually someone has garnered enough votes,” Dawida said. “This time, they might not.

“It may be too close to call, and Pennsylvania could put them over the top.”

Dawida recalled that in the 2008 Democratic primaries, it was also believed that Pennsylvania would have an effect on the decision. However, Barack Obama garnered enough votes to win the nomination the week before the state primary.

“Even though Hillary won decisively in Pennsylvania, it was already over,” Dawida said. “This time, it might be closer than that.”