How AP rates the presidential race, and the road to 270
WASHINGTON – Hillary Clinton continues to hold a significant battleground edge over Donald Trump, running ahead in enough states to give her an Electoral College tie. But some preference polls released this past week, including in one state where Clinton previously held an advantage, suggest the race may be tightening.
That’s according to an Associated Press analysis of the map as it stands today. The analysis considers preference polling, recent electoral history, demographic trends and campaign priorities such as advertising, travel and on-the-ground staff.
Two new surveys released in Wisconsin, by Marquette and Monmouth universities, show Trump much closer to Clinton than in previous polls in the state. The difference between the two candidates in the new polls is near or within the surveys’ margins of error.
Still, Clinton’s advantage is a strong one. If she holds Trump off in Wisconsin and defends her remaining leads, a victory in any of the several states now considered toss-ups would be enough for a November victory.
A look at the race, state by state:
Solid Democratic: California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maine 2nd District, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington state.
Leans Democratic: Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin.
Toss-up: Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio.
Leans Republican: Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, Nebraska 2nd District, Utah.
Solid Republican: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, Wyoming.