Jan 7, 2018 4 min read

The March 13 special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, which includes parts of Washington and Greene counties, should be a ho-hum affair.

It won’t be.

It should be ho-hum because it is a strongly Republican-leaning district, rated a “+11 Advantage Republican” by the respected Cook Political Report, and rated at least “likely Republican” by virtually every other election handicapper.

Conventional wisdom favors Republicans so strongly because of the history and demographic make-up of the district. The now-disgraced Tim Murphy regularly won the district by 60 percent of the vote or more, while Democrat Hillary Clinton pulled only a miserly 38 percent in the 2016 presidential race.

What makes the district so favorable to Republicans is the composition of the electorate, which includes the southern portion of Allegheny County, as well as Washington, Westmoreland and Greene counties. The latter three were overwhelmingly carried by President Trump in 2016. These counties contain a substantial number of white, rural and small-town voters, many of them working class. These are the same voters who propelled Trump to his 44,000-vote statewide victory. They were a critical part of the president’s Rust Belt strategy, especially in the old manufacturing and mill-town portions of the district.

The 18th Congressional District is quintessentially Trump country.

But there are at least six compelling forces playing out in this race that should frighten Republicans and reassure Democrats as the latter try to pick up a safe GOP seat heading into the momentous 2018 midterm elections.

The Political Climate

The national political climate has turned sharply against Republican candidates. Particularly worrisome is the so-called generic ballot question pollsters ask regarding which party voters prefer in the next congressional election. Democrats now sport a +12.8 advantage in the Real Clear Politics average, a statistic previously associated with massive “wave” elections sweeping incumbents out of power.

The Candidates

Democrats have nominated a centrist former assistant U. S. Attorney, Conor Lamb, the scion of a respected Pittsburgh-area political family, who is campaigning on such issues as opioids and infrastructure. He has already moved to mute controversy over polarizing issues such as gun control and abortion. Republicans, however, have nominated a conservative firebrand, Rick Saccone, best known for introducing legislation requiring school districts to post “In God We Trust” in every school. Saccone frequently brags, “I was Trump before Trump was Trump,” while the president’s approval rating in Pennsylvania sags at around 37 percent.

Lamb’s Union Support

In an important union district, with around 87,000 union members and families living in it, the support of union leadership matters. The AFL-CIO has endorsed Lamb. Unions are expected to provide him strong support, including contributions and vigorous get-out-the-vote efforts that are often key in special elections. While Murphy sometimes worked with unions, Saccone recently angered them by voting for a “paycheck protection” bill.

GOP’s Enthusiasm Gap

In the aftermath of Trump’s controversial first year, Democrats are animated and activated, while Republicans show less excitement and less enthusiasm. Some of this is playing out in Democrats’ consistent overperformance in special elections around the country last year, not least the upset victory by Doug Jones in last month’s Alabama Senate election. Republican candidates in every special election this year have failed to match Trump’s 2016 numbers. Then, too, Democrats seem genuinely excited about their nominee, whose resume and policy positions paint him as a moderate Democrat.

The Mid-Term Curse

Incumbent presidents lose House seats in midterm years, often a lot of them. And, early as it is, the March special election is really the first midterm in 2018. The history of incumbent losses goes back to Franklin Roosevelt and earlier. And few presidents have been as unpopular in the lead-up to the midterms as Trump is likely to be. The real question for Republicans is not whether they lose House seats, but how many. The early March results will be an important clue to that.

The Wild Card

Democrats have some 70,000 more registered voters in the district despite its GOP leanings. The enthusiasm gap may bring some of these voters to the polls. But the true wild card is the lawsuit challenging the fairness of the congressional districts the Legislature has drawn. It is possible that the March election might feature a reconfigured district more favorable to Democrats.

In this mix, Republican Saccone’s perceived ultra conservatism, coupled with Lamb’s perceived moderation and Trump’s unquestioned unpopularity, could nationalize the race. Nationalizing it might bring a Democratic victory. Like most special elections, voter turnout will be the key; unlike most special elections, voters just might turn out for this one.