Dec 10, 2016 7 min read

The Middle East will certainly pose many serious challenges for the incoming Trump administration. So far, President-elect Donald Trump has shown little interest in foreign affairs, preferring to concentrate more on domestic issues. However, we will quickly learn if what Trump boasted about as a candidate is actually true – does he know more than the generals?

Will one of his early foreign policy lessons be that Vladimir Putin’s attempts at flattery concealed more ominous intentions? Is the possibility of an unholy alliance between our newly-elected president and the former KGB chief to fight global terrorism nothing more than a fool’s dream? Putin’s goals of resurrecting the power, prestige and expansive boundaries of the old Soviet empire have clearly not changed. Nothing less than a nostalgic return to the days of Russian hegemony in Eastern Europe will do. Like Crimea and other parts of Ukraine, the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia could prove to be the next courses on Putin’s dinner plate.

As if the underlying threats to fledgling post-Cold War European democracies are not enough, Putin’s computer hackers are busy making mischief with elections in various countries. It is in his interest that right-wing governments take power in these countries. Nationalist movements share no love for things like mutual defense cooperation. Russian election hackers? Doubts about NATO’s future? Any of these sound familiar?

If we are to realistically assess where all this is going, one only need look to the Middle East generally and Syria specifically. God help the victims of the senseless carnage, the brutality and sheer barbarism of the Bashar al-Assad regime.

The world has remained shamefully blind to the evil slaughter of innocent civilians caught up in a nasty civil war that has claimed the lives of nearly 500,000 people in the last five years. Terrorist groups like ISIS continue to occupy swaths of Syrian territory without challenge. Into this mix comes the Russians, determined to save the crumbling rule of a murderous dictator and war criminal. Putin says Russia is in Syria to destroy ISIS but, in fact, the combined military forces of both Putin and Assad vigorously target by air, and lay siege to the ground, to cities like Aleppo, where remnants of Syrian rebel groups still hold out.

The revolutions of the Arab Spring brought demands for change in Syria, too. The protests were peaceful at first, with hopes that Assad would make some meaningful and much-needed democratic reforms. Instead, he acted to ruthlessly to crush any opposition and thus began the horrors of the Syrian tragedy. When it was discovered by the Obama administration that Assad possessed chemical weapons, and was capable of using them, President Obama drew a red line and warned Assad not to cross it. When Assad did gas his people, as his father, Hafez al-Assad, had done previously, the world held its collective breath. But Obama blinked, the Russians smelled timidity, and the rest is where we are at today.

Several unsuccessful attempts have been made in recent years by Secretary of State John Kerry to engage the rebels, the Russians and the Assad government in order to broker a ceasefire, but to no effect.

Vital supplies of food, water and medicine are needed in besieged cities like Aleppo. Meanwhile, the Russian and Syrian air forces deliberately target civilians, indiscriminately attacking heavily populated areas, dropping lethal barrel bombs on residential neighborhoods, schools and the few remaining hospitals there. These are despicable war crimes that go unpunished because the world chooses to ignore them. For Russia and the mullahs in Iran, apparently the cries for freedom and democracy are a greater threat than the savagery of the Islamic State. How can a President Trump trust anything that Vladimir Putin says or does?

During the campaign, Trump and Vice President-elect Mike Pence both indicated their support for so-called safe zones in Syria. In the past, Trump has been willing to concede a carte blanche to the Russians, believing that Putin could or would solve the ISIS problem in Syria. Now he must open his eyes wide and realize that this is not the reason for the Russian intervention there. The Russians, Iranians and Hezbollah are determined to preserve Assad’s control. As to safe zones, they might slow the mass exodus of refugees out of the country, but hard questions remain as to how that might work. Without Russian and Syrian acquiescence, it won’t happen, unless the United States and the West are willing to confront the violators of safe airspace. Other Middle East hotspots will demand Trump’s attention, including Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran. Let’s also not forget the never-ending mess that is the Israeli-Palestinian situation.

Trump needs to build a national security and foreign policy team with knowledge, expertise and experience in vital regions that affect America’s interests. The art of diplomacy must be seen as every bit important as the art of the deal. Above all, Trump must acquire the ability to recognize a potential quagmire. The United States should also be prepared to stand for those American values that sometimes merit a military response.

The Syrian crisis has exposed the absolute impotence of the United Nations as a peacekeeping organization. The condemnations from Secretary General Ban Ki-moon ring hollow when not backed up by strong and effective UN resolutions. Any UN votes that might condemn the Russian and Syrian governments for their heinous attacks, including on UN relief convoys in Syria, would surely be met by a swift veto by the Russian ambassador in the Security Council. Putin must be made to understand that there will never be peace in Syria as long as his puppet Assad rules in Damascus.

What could a potential deal in Syria look like? Certainly one in which a stable and sustained ceasefire would be followed by talks that would lead to Assad’s asylum in Moscow or Tehran, and a negotiated settlement leading to free and fair elections.

Even if the seemingly impossible became possible, other serious security threats remain. ISIS, along with other terrorist groups, still loom large over the Syrian landscape. Is it any wonder that Trump appeared somber and spoke in thoughtful tones after his initial Oval Office meeting with Obama?

In the meantime, while politicians and diplomats continue to talk, innocent Syrian civilians continue to suffer and die in a war without end. After each devastating air assault, Syrian fathers continue to desperately dig for their missing children in the rubble, and Syrian mothers continue to weep over the shrouded bodies of their dead sons and daughters.

What we see on the nightly news is real. The Syrian nation is slowly dying. These are unspeakable war crimes. Where is the moral outrage? Has the conscience of mankind become so numb as to ignore this holocaust? The silence of a complicit, civilized world is truly deafening.

Elie Wiesel, the late Nobel Laureate and Holocaust survivor, once said, “I swore never to be silent whenever and wherever human beings endure suffering and humiliation. We must take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.”

Haberl is a resident of South Strabane Township.