What a Trump presidency could look like
Election Day is close at hand. After Nov. 8, the thousands of articles written by pundits, the hundreds of cable news shows and the millions of dollars spent on advertising will no longer matter. Either the White House will be claimed by our first woman president or by a maverick firebrand who adopts Ronald Reagan as his (sometime) domestic model and refuses to disclose his plans in foreign affairs.
Donald Trump has clearly struck a chord with segments of white America who want this election to be about them. They see Trump as the champion who can give voice to their complaints and fears. This may be their last chance to control the national agenda and they intend to seize it.
Despite Trump’s many missteps and un-presidential demeanor, he has a chance of becoming the next leader of the free world. In these final days before America votes, it is time to stop arguing about Trump’s statements and his campaign management. Instead, undecided voters should stand back and consider what a Trump presidency might look like. It is time to extrapolate Trump the candidate into Trump the president. After all, four years of a Trump presidency is the real issue we must consider.
It is safe to assume if Trump wins, Republicans will keep control of the Senate and House of Representatives. One would think his first acts would be to repeal large portions of Obamacare; cancel administrative orders on immigration and regulatory matters; take some action to build a wall on the Mexican border and introduce tax cuts. If Trump nominates a Supreme Court candidate unacceptable to Democrats, this could derail his other programs as the Supreme Court battle consumes the Senate.
Before Republicans start cheering, they should remember Trump has zero governmental experience and has alienated the Republican congressional leadership. His key advisors, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. Jeff Sessions of Alabama, have little influence on Capitol Hill. Believing Trump would manage the first 100 days of his Presidency any better than he did the Republican convention is not a good bet.
This is a different issue from the first 100 days, because Trump is not a typical Republican. Tea party members of Congress will find little to like because Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, will want her father to govern more like a social liberal. President Trump will not be a no-spending, tea party conservative. He will appear more like the Bushes, seeking to spend revenue to advance his projects, such as immigration and law enforcement, child care proposals and making the military “big, powerful and strong.” His plans to force other nations to pay for projects, from the Mexican wall, NATO commitments and Chinese trade imbalances, will prove difficult to implement. Traditional Republicans will soon wish Hillary Clinton had won the election as Trump roils the financial markets.
Trump is no Reagan, who delegated some work to competent advisors. His style is more in the Jimmy Carter, micromanagement camp. Unfortunately, Trump is also no Carter. He will waste valuable political capital on counterpunching the media, Democrats and fellow Republicans who challenge his statements and policies. His inability to understand that words matter will cause a series of crises, particularly in foreign policy. Trump’s secretary of state and press secretary will have the most difficult jobs in government, explaining what he meant to say and cleaning up after him.
Eight years of steady profits and cheap money did not compel corporate America to invest in new factories or infrastructure. Instead, increased productivity through layoffs and automation, and using profits to buy back stock shares has been the order of the day. There is nothing in Trump’s corporate tax cuts that would compel a different result. He does nothing to tie tax breaks to increased corporate spending on job creation. If Trump is serious about penalizing corporations who use cheap overseas labor and in attacking all trade deals, he will run afoul of free-market Republicans.
Regarding individual taxes, his plan will increase inequality by making the rich even richer and will increase the deficit. There has been little evidence of trickle-down spending by the wealthy. Instead, well-heeled Americans have plowed savings into the stock market which has had phenomenal growth since the Great Recession.
Domestic unrest will increase based on Trump’s off-the-cuff comments and his divisive election tactics. The coal mines will not magically reopen, and Rust Belt factories will not be unshuttered. Investment capital is not interested in reviving the old economy when the new economy holds so much profit potential. There are no Trump plans to fix the student loan crisis or to recommit the nation to an equitable education policy.
This is the wild card in a Trump presidency. World leaders, with the exception of the most embedded despots, fear the worst. Trump’s refusal to offer policies he would follow forces friends and foes to recalculate their options, many of which are destabilizing to the world order. If a President Trump seeks to renegotiate alliances with Europe, South Asia and the Far East, pro-American world leaders will be forced to rethink their own security concerns.
Trump may be correct that compelling Germany, France, Japan, South Korea and India, among others, to boost their military spending could lower ours. But the cost to American hegemony would be beyond repair. Moreover, regimes in Russia, China, North Korea and Iran would expand quickly to fill the vacuum.
As a direct result of Trump’s statements and positions, Islamic fundamentalists will have a resurgence. They will be on the march in the Middle East and in recruiting terrorists in the West. A vicious cycle of Islamic repression and increased violence at home and abroad will result. Trump will find common cause with right-wing governments in Europe who will support his draconian immigration policies.
Trump has also made clear the United States would no longer participate in global warming initiatives and treaties. Trade wars will erupt as existing accommodations are no longer honored by the Trump administration.
When sober Republicans and independents enter the voting booth, they must be careful what they wish for. Voters should remember that 1990s, when Bill Clinton was in the White House, was a time of economic prosperity, balanced budgets and thoughtful foreign policy. Hillary Clinton will continue this tradition.
Our economy in 2016 is the largest and most stable in the world. American diplomacy and military strength are the envy of the world. Changing horses when you are in the lead and in the homestretch on numerous policies does not make sense. A vote for Trump will be betting on uncertainty and disruption, not change for the better.
Gary Stout is a Washington attorney.