Aug 26, 2017 5 min read

War on the Korean Peninsula is not an option.

The results would be cataclysmic. If the situation there devolves into all-out war, it could well mean death for thousands of people. The potential use of nuclear weapons could render the peninsula uninhabitable for 1,000 years.

In President Trump’s defense, he inherited this problem from past presidents going back to Bill Clinton. Deals made by successive administrations with the regime in Pyongyang fell victim to cheating in such a way as to render them useless. The Kim family’s march to a nuclear weapon was sometimes slowed but never halted. Now, Kim Jung-un is in a race to perfect an ICBM missile, armed with a nuclear warhead, to threaten the continental United States.

As punishing sanctions continue, Kim suspects that regime change is not far off, and that only his fast-paced nuclear deterrent will save him and his continued dominion over a starving population. Shortly before leaving office, a very worried President Obama briefed Trump on potential crises that could affect his presidency. At the top of the list was North Korea, and that country’s steady advances to joining the nuclear club of nations. While it is true that the previous era of “strategic patience” did not halt the progression of North Korea’s nuclear development, it did slow it. And with no good options available, short of a devastating war there, the can was quietly kicked down the road by both Republican and Democratic presidents.

Now Trump is facing the serious threat that a desperate and ruthless despot, determined to stay in power at all costs, will soon have the means to launch a nuclear attack on American soil, with the knowledge that neither he nor his regime would survive in the aftermath. It seems like a lose-lose scenario, but Kim has other cards to play.

Held hostage in this international game of chicken is South Korea. About 28,000 American troops guard the 38th parallel border between the two Koreas. What action would follow, say, a pre-emptive strike to destroy various North Korean missile sites. North Korea’s regime has amassed a staggering artillery force whose guns are clearly aimed at Seoul, South Korea’s capital. Millions could die there.

An invasion by the North into the South would put U.S. troops directly into the fight. While much of North Korea’s weaponry is old and outdated, the sheer numbers of Kim’s armed forces would put him at an early advantage. The North Korean military, with nearly 6 million members, constitutes nearly 25 percent of their population. So an all-out ground assault on South Korea could give Kim a temporary victory. However, it’s unlikely that, given such a scenario, the United States would not resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

Trump and Kim Jong-un have recently tried to outdo each other in the threat department. Trump promises “fire and fury” while Kim threatens Guam. China’s role in all of this remains a puzzling mystery. You would think the last thing Beijing would want on its southern border is a massive conflict with nuclear dimensions. While North Korea’s missile and nuclear tests rile the Chinese, they are not about to weaken the regime or remove Kim from power. China is not going to risk a possible flood of refugees across its border. And a united, democratic Korea, as an ally of the United States, causes many a sleepness night for the Chinese leadership. This is why China continues to tolerate Kim Jong-un’s bad behavior. As much as President Trump believes that China can solve the North Korean nuclear crisis, the Chinese are loath to do much more than scold Pyongyang and blame both parties.

So, as both sides up the ante, what’s left? Diplomacy, maybe, but in a few short months, Trump has managed to gut the State Department. On some days, it appears that leading administration officials are on different pages regarding North Korea, and are regularly contradicted by the commander-in-chief in his Twitter rants. Angry and threatening words come easily and often to the North Korean government. It should not be so with Washington, D.C.

During the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, President John F. Kennedy knew an attack on Cuba would result in a nuclear war with the Soviet Union. His decision to opt for a blockade of the island, and later quietly agreeing to withdraw American missiles in Turkey, averted World War III. North Korea and the United States, in concert with our South Korean and Japanese allies must sit down and engage, with China’s help, in a direct dialogue. This will not happen If Trump sets pre-conditions. Pyongyang will never give up its nuclear arsenal for the opportunity to sit across from American diplomats at the negotiating table. The best we can hope for in such talks would be a much-needed peace treaty between the two Koreas, the establishment of diplomatic relations between them, and eventually with the United States. Kim has made it clear his nuclear program is not on the table for elimination. But, with Chinese pressure, the North might go for a permanent freeze in development. North Korea desperately wants out from under the multiple layers of crippling sanctions now in place against them.

During the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, President John F. Kennedy knew an attack on Cuba would result in a nuclear war with the Soviet Union. His decision to opt for a blockade of the island, and later quietly agreeing to withdraw American missiles in Turkey, averted World War III. Fifty-five years later, there is no perfect solution to the Korean dilemma. Trump needs the wisdom of experienced diplomats and the quiet resolve of a Kennedy to bring about a result we can live with. The future of peace and security in Asia depends on cool heads.

Haberl is a retired teacher and a resident of South Strabane Township.