Workers don’t share in lawmakers’ pay hikes
With Pennsylvanians’ real wages in decline and the minimum hourly wage still locked at $7.25, lawmakers are set for huge inflation-tied pay increases.
Legislators are set for their highest pay increase ever, with next year’s hike set to push base pay past $100,000 per year, as Spotlight PA reported. Lawmakers don’t vote on their pay hikes: They’re tied to a regional cost-of-living index, meaning inflation and rising prices for consumer goods cause automatic increases.
There’s no such law for most Pennsylvania workers, whose pay increases are up to a combination of market forces and union contracts. And with high inflation, those market forces haven’t been enough to keep wages up.
In fact, wage increases generally haven’t kept pace with living expenses for most Pennsylvanians. Real hourly earnings – workers’ pay adjusted for cost-of-living and inflation – fell by an average of 3.9% in June, the state Independent Fiscal Office told the Williamsport Sun-Gazette.
That decline follows a series of similarly large drops in the past several months.
While average real wages decline, the minimum wage for Pennsylvania workers remains stuck in place at $7.25 per hour. That’s the federal minimum that has remained in place since 2009.
If that rate kept pace with inflation, it would be at least $10 per hour now, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ cost-of-living calculator. And according to calculations by the left-leaning Center for Economic and Policy Research, it would be well over $20 if pay kept pace with workers’ overall productivity.
Several states, including next-door neighbor Ohio, apply a formula annually to adjust their minimum pay rates.
Recent efforts to hike Pennsylvania’s minimum rate – spearheaded by Gov. Tom Wolf and allies in his administration – have fallen short amid negotiations with the GOP-controlled Legislature. Wolf’s administration has set new regulations governing how tipped workers are paid, including increases in the minimum they can make before they’re subject to a so-called sub-minimum wage of $2.83 per hour.
Wolf has also clashed with lawmakers over efforts to send $2,000 checks to Pennsylvanians in a bid to offset high prices. While Wolf points to billions of dollars available in state funds, GOP officials have argued that giving residents money to pay for living expenses would only increase inflation.
Dems hold lead in key races
A new poll shows Democratic hopefuls in big statewide races maintaining clear leads over their Republican rivals, while Democrats nationwide enjoy an uptick in support.
A Franklin & Marshall College poll released this week – based on 522 voters from Aug. 15 to 21 – shows Lt. Gov. John Fetterman leading over physician Mehmet Oz by a wide margin in the Senate race, with independent voters widely favoring the former Braddock mayor.
Similarly, the poll shows Attorney General Josh Shapiro leading state Sen. Doug Mastriano, R-Adams, by double digits in the race for governor. In both cases, those polled were much more likely to have negative views of Mastriano and Oz than of their opponents.
The findings may come as a relief for national Democrats, who are fighting to keep their narrow hold over the House and Senate in November. While low approval ratings for President Joe Biden had long signaled risks for the Democrats, polls increasingly suggest the party could do better than expected.
In polls citing the “generic ballot” – asking voters which party they’d likely vote for, rather than individual politicians – Democrats are gaining ground. And in several key Senate races, the party holds narrow leads.
Voters shuffle as election approaches
While Pennsylvania polling looks promising for Democrats, this year’s voter registrations paint a more complex picture.
So far in 2022, the GOP has netted a huge win in voters switching registrations – a win that has narrowed the gap between the two parties. This year, according to the Department of State, more than 64,000 registered voters have switched to the GOP, while fewer than 30,000 have switched to the Democrats.
On its face, that would suggest a clear victory for Republicans, pointing to a fired-up base or an identity that draws in independents. But that’s not the whole story.
New online applications have widely favored Democrats this year, with the party enjoying a lead of 77,000 to about 64,000, according to the state (25,000 new applications went to independents or third-party members).
New voters may also be fired up to vote by the Supreme Court’s decision to reverse the Roe v. Wade ruling that affirmed abortion rights. As PoliticsPA reported this week, citing data firm Target Smart, a clear majority of those new registrants since June have been women – and of those, more than 60% registered as Democrats.
The new registrations represent a clear shift toward women registrants, one that’s unprecedented in Pennsylvania in the past few years, according to a New York Times analysis.
Combined with polling that shows broad support for abortion rights and indications of a closing “enthusiasm gap” between the parties, that split suggests a new crop of motivated, left-leaning voters this season.
Ryan Brown covers statewide politics for Ogden Newspapers. He can be reached at rbrown@altoonamirror.com.