Feb 3, 2024 5 min read

By Gary Stout

“The stability of democracies depends on the possibility of elections to be destabilizing.” The New Yorker, Jan. 15 edition.

Now that the domestic election season has begun, Americans are focused on the 2024 presidential campaign. There is little drama left in the primaries and a rerun of the 2020 Biden-Trump contest seems inevitable.

For those looking to expand their worldview and explore different elections, the magazine The Economist and many other news outlets have pointed out that in 2024 a new international record will be set for voting. Seventy-six nations are going to the polls to choose new leaders. Countries with more than half the world’s population, over 4 billion people, will have elections.

According to the analysis in The Economist, “In the most democratic countries, such as Britain, the election may cause a substantial change in policy. In Russia, one of the least democratic, the vote is unlikely to weaken Vladimir Putin’s grip on power.” With this important contrast in mind, my commentary will take a look at some of the more noteworthy elections in 2024.

Taiwan. On Jan. 13, Taiwan had the first of many critical elections this year. The results could reshape the global political order. The current vice president, Lai Ching-te, of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), defeated two other candidates. Lai has long been an advocate of Taiwanese independence from China and does not support the mainland’s “one country, two systems” formula. Lai is a lightning rod, and his election could worsen the growing threat of Chinese military action against Taiwan. A moderating factor is the divided government, where the Taiwanese legislature favors policies more acceptable to China.

Indonesia. In the most populous country in Southeast Asia, elections are scheduled this month. It is the world’s largest single-day election. When the votes are counted, a president and vice president, along with nearly 20,000 representatives, will be elected to national, provincial, and district parliaments from a pool of a quarter-million candidates. Indonesia’s young democracy is fragile. Political observers are concerned that meddling in election policies by the country’s old-guard elites may cause irreparable harm.

Ukraine. Under the Ukrainian constitution, presidential elections are scheduled for March. However, also under Ukrainian law, elections cannot occur because a declaration of martial law is in place. While 80% of Ukrainian voters do not want an election until the war is over, there are reasons to remove martial law and attempt a wartime election. Far-right American Republicans are using the absence of voting as an excuse to suspend military aid to Ukraine. Moreover, holding a fair election under difficult circumstances would be well received by the European Union and NATO.

India. In May, Indian voters go to the polls. India’s ruling BJP political party, the world’s largest with 180 million members, is expected to carry Narendra Modi,

the incumbent prime minister, to victory. In a recent survey, 78% of Indians approved of Modi’s job performance.

Two factors account for Modi’s popularity. First, his government’s economic program consists of ramped up investments in the public distribution of private goods, toilets, bank accounts, and electricity connections. Second, the belief that a steady march toward Hindu nationalism, in which the strong central rule of a Hindu party and its leader, will bring about a “golden Hindu age.” If Modi continues on this path, the future will be difficult for Muslims and others who value a pluralistic state with freedom of expression.

Mexico. On June 2, Mexico’s 2024 presidential elections will mark a milestone in Mexico’s history. For the first time, a woman will likely be selected to lead the country. Mexico’s incumbent president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has chosen former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Shinebaum Pardo as his successor. It appears that Pardo would continue the strategy of minimal confrontation with organized crime, a policy that has come to be known as “hugs, not bullets.” Her election would leave the U.S. and Mexico far apart on important issues like controlling immigration and illegal drugs.

Britain. Sometime in the second half of 2024, British voters will cast their verdict after 14 years of chaotic rule by the Conservative Party. In this period, the Tories have gone through five prime ministers. In an ironic turn of events, British conservatives are now battling each other for control of the right. They have lost their grip on the Trump-like populism that previously slashed through established party lines on issues that kept them in power, such as leaving the European Union.

While the rest of Europe moves toward electing populist candidates based on concerns on the economy, immigration, and distrust of elites, Britain is poised to place a moderate, left-leaning Labour government in charge. The Labour candidate, Keir Starmer, has laid out five missions if he becomes prime minister: to increase housing, job creation and economic growth; reduce skyrocketing energy bills; boost the National Health Service; tackle crime and antisocial behavior; and reform child care and the country’s educational system.

Important June elections in the European Parliament and the 18 contests in Africa are also worth examining. While many 2024 elections are no guarantee of democracy, representative government cannot exist without them. On the other hand, elections that are free but not fair can quickly turn liberty into oppression.

Gary Stout is a Washington attorney.