Dec 29, 2018 6 min read

The Steelers head into today needing to win, and counting on the Cleveland Browns to win in Baltimore, to make the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season.

It’s a situation that seemed unthinkable just six weeks ago when the Steelers were heading to Denver with a 7-2-1 record and a 2½-game lead in the AFC North.

How did they get here?

The easy, lazy and popular answer is to simply blame the coaching staff, and more directly, head coach Mike Tomlin. But that’s too simplistic. After all, where exactly has Tomlin erred this season in his coaching? And firing Tomlin is ridiculous. Since the start of the Super Bowl era, 372 different people have coached NFL teams. Of those 372, only 11 have led their teams to multiple Super Bowls. That’s 2.9 percent.

So, realistically, Tomlin can be considered in the top 2.9 percent of the NFL coaches since 1966.

No, this failure, if that’s what it turns out to be, is on the players. And it’s easy to point to the top five moments that have led us to this point:

1. James Conner’s fumble in Cleveland – Conner was great for large portions of the season but his fumble moments after the Browns failed on a fourth-down conversion from the Pittsburgh 18-yard line with the Steelers holding a 21-7 lead was a game-changer. The Browns recovered the loose ball with 7:36 remaining and returned it to the Steelers’ 1. Carlos Hyde scored on the next play and the Browns grabbed the momentum in a 21-21 tie.

2. Xavier Grimble’s fumble in Denver – Many will point to Ben Roethlisberger’s game-ending interception, or even another Conner fumble, in this game as the reason the Steelers lost, but it was Grimble’s fumble at the Broncos’ 1 on the first play of the second quarter that was a game-changer. Not only did Grimble lose the ball on what should have been an easy score, he fumbled it out of the end zone for a touchback. The Steelers would lose, 24-17.

3. Ramon Foster’s holding penalty vs. Chargers – Even with a terrible non-call on an obvious false start that would have negated a Chargers touchdown, the Steelers were leading Los Angeles, 23-7, at halfttime. And they were driving to open the second half when Conner broke off a 22-yard run around right end to the Chargers’ 26. But a holding penalty on Foster away from the play negated the gain. Instead of being in at least in field-goal range, the Steelers were forced to punt. And the Chargers’ comeback began.

4. Chris Boswell misses two field goals in Oakland – Boswell had a rough season before heading to the injured reserve list Friday. The worst game was in Oakland. Not only did Boswell miss a 39-yard attempt in the first half, his slipped and fell on a 40-yard attempt as time expired after the Steelers hit a hook-and-ladder play in a 24-21 loss.

5. Joe Haden’s phantom pass interference in New Orleans – The Steelers led 3-0 in the first quarter in New Orleans and had what appeared to be a stop of the Saints on fourth-and-1 from the Pittsburgh 34 when Haden broke up a pass in the end zone intended for Alvin Kamara. But one official saw things differently, throwing a flag for pass interference on Haden despite minimal contact between the two players on a pass that sailed well over Kamara’s head. The ball was placed at the 1 for a foul nobody else believed was a penalty. The Steelers lost the game, 31-28, and should have had a stop with the ball at their own 34. Instead, the Saints were gifted seven points.

• This could be the final game for Marvin Lewis with the Bengals. We said the same thing last season, then Lewis and the Bengals won enough down the stretch, including in the regular season finale at Baltimore, to knock the Ravens out of the playoffs, to save the coach’s job.

At some point, enough has to be enough in Cincinnati. Not for the Bengals. Owner Mike Brown gets what he deserves in terms of his refusal to spend money. No, it’s got to be enough for Lewis, who deserves a better fate than the one he’s gotten in Cincinnati.

• JuJu Smith-Schuster was voted the Steelers’ MVP by his teammates but this year, more than any before, it should have been Roethlisberger. He leads the NFL in passing and has already set a team record for touchdown passes.

Yes, Roethlisberger leads the NFL with 15 interceptions but his interception percentage is 2.4 per 100 passes. That’s tied for third-fewest in his career. He’s simply thrown more passes than ever before.

Smith-Schuster has had a very good year. But without Roethlisberger – and Antonio Brown opposite him drawing double coverage – his numbers wouldn’t be as good.

This week’s picks

Steelers minus 14 over Cincinnati: The Bengals are decimated by injuries. We’ll see if Brown plays in this one, but Conner is expected to return. The Steelers will have no issues running on the Bengals and Cincinnati’s offense is Joe Mixon and little else. The Steelers will shut that down in a 30-10 victory.

Cleveland plus 5½ over Baltimore: The Ravens have been in this situation before, losing to the Bengals last season, the Steelers in 2016 and the Bengals in 2013, to miss the playoffs. And while everyone is trumpeting that the Ravens have won five of their past six, so have the Browns, who can finish above .500 for the first time since 2007. The Browns also force way more turnovers (29) than the Ravens (14), who are one of only three teams who have fewer defensive turnovers than the Steelers. The Browns will pull out all the stops in this one and come away with a 23-20 victory.

Indianapolis minus 3 over Tennessee: The Titans don’t have enough offense, or enough defense with their best defensive player, tackle Jurrell Casey out for this game, to hang with the Colts in a winner-makes-the playoffs game. The Colts will win, 27-16, to claim the final AFC playoff spot.

Philadelphia minus 6½ over Washington: The Eagles have pulled themselves back into playoff contention and need a win plus a loss by the Minnesota Vikings against the Chicago Bears to get into the playoffs. The Redskins will oblige as the Eagles will win, 24-13

Chicago minus ½ over Minnesota: The Bears are going are playing for a chance at a first-round bye with a win and a loss by the Los Angeles Rams. And they want to show they’re the clear-cut best team in the NFC North. They’ll do that in a 23-17 victory.