Nov 3, 2018 6 min read

Some will look at today’s game between the Steelers and Baltimore Ravens and call it a must-win contest for one team or the other.

After all, if the Ravens win, they will have pulled off a season sweep of the Steelers, something they haven’t accomplished since 2015 and have done only three times in the series. The Steelers have swept the season series six times.

But a win by the Ravens would only improve their record to 5-4 and keep their playoff hopes on life support. They would, after all, still be behind the Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC North standings.

A loss by the Ravens, however, would drop their record to 4-5 and they would likely be dead in the water in terms of winning the division but would still be in the mix in the overall AFC playoff picture. That’s despite still have road games at Atlanta, Kansas City and Los Angeles against the Chargers remaining.

It also would position the Steelers, at 5-2-1, and for what could be a strong stretch run. A loss leaves them ahead of the Ravens in the standings and, given the team’s tie earlier this season against the Cleveland Browns, they likely don’t have to worry about any head-to-head tiebreakers with Baltimore.

So, is it a must-win situation?

Nobody is going to be eliminated from anything by a loss, so no, it’s not a must-win game for either team.

This is one both teams would prefer to win. But that’s the case for every game.

• The Steelers rushed for only 19 yards on 11 carries in the first game against Baltimore, a 26-14 win by the Ravens.

Since then, James Conner has rushed for 110, 111 and 146 yards, getting at least 19 carries in those three games, all wins by the Steelers.

So why didn’t the running game work against the Ravens?

The Steelers weren’t as confident in Conner as they now are. After all, while he had rushed for 135 yards on 31 carries in the opener at Cleveland, he also lost a critical fumble in that game.

He also gained only 78 yards on 23 carries in the Steelers’ next two games.

Now, however, the Steelers are sold on Conner as their running back, not just for the remainder of this season, but in 2019 as well.

As we saw last Sunday against Cleveland, even when Conner is bottled up for a stretch, as he was in that game, gaining just 33 yards on his first 10 carries, the Steelers are confident enough that he’s going to start gaining traction and they will continue to give him the ball.

• Between Conner’s running and Vance McDonald’s bruising run-after-the-catch abilities, the Steelers have taken on a much more physical nature with their offense.

Both Conner and McDonald go looking for contact with the ball in their hands.

The Steelers had become a finesse-based offense in recent years. They are decidedly not that now.

And it’s a big reason why they are 15-for-20 scoring touchdowns in the red zone this season.

Much was made of the Ravens converting their first 12 red zone trips going into their first meeting with the Steelers. They then converted their first trip inside the 20 into a touchdown in that game to make it 13 straight to start the season, an NFL record.

Since then, then Ravens are only eight of 16 converting red zone trips into touchdowns. They lack an offensive identity. Joe Flacco is averaging 42.8 pass attempts per game – tied with the Colts’ Andrew Luck for the most in the league – while he ranks 14th in passing yards per game.

And the Ravens average only 3.6 yards per rushing attempt, 31st in the league.

That could be a big difference in this game.

• New Browns head coach Gregg Williams told reporters this week that he’s had 11 chances to interview for head coaching positions since he was fired from a similar job with the BuffaloBills in 2003. He added that four of those jobs he wouldn’t have even needed to interview for. He only needed to show up and sign his name on the dotted line.

Williams was 17-31 in three seasons with the Bills. In 20 seasons as a defensive coordinator, his defenses have finished No. 1 just one time. He also was suspended by the NFL for a season for his role in “Bountygate,” paying players to hurt opponents.

So, yeah, it is hard to believe teams haven’t been beating his door down to be a head coach again.

This week’s picks

Steelers plus 3 at Baltimore: As mentioned above, the Steelers have found their running game, while the Ravens just can’t. Two weeks ago against the Saints, they had 11 different players run the ball. Baltimore has to work too hard to run the football. And with both offensive tackles out for this game, that should be enough for the Steelers to control the Ravens’ offense. The Steelers will win this one outright, 24-20.

Kansas City plus 10 over Cleveland: The league’s most explosive offense faces the league’s most explosive franchise. The Chiefs are averaging 36.3 points per game. The Browns are 24th in points per game allowed at 26.3. Now that he’s in charge, we’ll see Williams run more of his favored all-out blitzes. That won’t work well against Kansas City, which should win, 41-17.

New Orleans plus 2 over L.A. Rams: This looks like a preview of the NFC championship, with the winner having the inside track at home-field advantage. The Rams are 8-0, but the Saints are returning home after back-to-back tough road games against the Ravens and Vikings – both wins. New Orleans is tough at home and this has the look of a shootout. But we’ll take the home team getting points as the Saints will win, 31-30, in a game that should live up to its billing.

Houston pick ’em over Denver: Demaryious Thomas was traded last week from Denver to Houston to help the first-place Texans down the stretch. He probably won’t play a lot this week, but he should have been able to give the Texans some insight into Denver’s offense. And Houston’s defensive line should feast on Case Keenum in a 27-17 win.

New England minus 5 over Green Bay: The Packers traded away veteran free safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix just in time to face Tom Brady and the Patriots. New England isn’t as strong as usual, but the Packers just played a game in Los Angeles against the Rams and now have to go to the East Coast to play New England. That’s a tough stretch. It should add up to a 31-24 win for the Patriots.