Oct 29, 2021 5 min read

This has been bizarro world in the NFL this season – at least in the AFC.

The Bengals would hold the top seed in the AFC playoffs if the playoffs began this weekend. The Raiders would be the second seed. The Chiefs? They wouldn’t even be in the playoffs.

Just when you think you’ve got things figured out, the rules change. See my record against the spread this season below as proof of that.

The Cincinnati Bengals haven’t won a playoff game since 1991, the Las Vegas Raiders since 2002 – you thought this current four-year streak for the Steelers was tough – but both are playing well.

And both beat the Steelers this season. The Steelers’ other loss came to Green Bay, who started 6-1 before COVID-19 ripped through their roster this week and made them a shell of themselves Thursday night against the unbeaten Cardinals – another traditionally downtrodden franchise.

After watching the Bengals trounce the Ravens, 41-17, in Baltimore last week, it’s amazing the Steelers only lost 24-10 to Cincinnati in a game in which they played without starting outside linebackers T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith and No. 1 receiver Diontae Johnson.

That’s a lot of firepower missing.

But with wins now in Pittsburgh and Baltimore, the Bengals are officially the team to beat in the AFC North. And the schedule isn’t exactly daunting. The Bengals still have games against the New York Jets (this week), San Francisco 49ers at home and the suddenly punchless Denver Broncos. That should guarantee eight wins. Take care of business at home the rest of the way in the AFC North and the Bengals are an 11-win team.

It could happen.

And it just goes to show how quickly things can change in the NFL. Three years ago, the Cardinals were picking No. 1 overall in the draft. Two years ago, it was the Bengals. Now, both currently hold the top seeds in their respective conference.

That’s what happens when you make the right pick at quarterback.

• To that point, imagine how good the Clevleand Browns would be right now had they taken Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson No. 1 overall in 2018 instead of Baker Mayfield.
• Ben Roethlisberger could be making the final start of his career in Cleveland this weekend. He’s 11-2-1 in Cleveland and 23-2-1 in the regular season against the Browns.

That’s dominance.

• But, hey, Cleveland got Kellen Winslow Jr., in the first round of the 2004 draft, passing on Roethlisberger because it had just signed Jeff Garcia.

Younger readers will have to look up those two guys. Older readers know that statement is chuckle worthy.

This week’s games

Steelers (plus 3½) at Browns: The Steelers will have issues consistently stopping Nick Chubb. Of that there is little doubt. But when the Browns put the ball in the air – and they will have to do so – the Steelers have a big advantage. The Browns have allowed 16 touchdown passes, including nine in their past three games. And that was with a healthy secondary. If the Steelers can win the turnover battle, they’ll win this game. Take the Steelers 23-20

Bengals (minus 10) at Jets: What’s this? The Bengals favored by two scores? Yep. That’s what’s happening in upside-down-world in the AFC. This shows how good the Bengals are and just how pitiful things have gotten for the Jets, who this week traded for Joe Flacco with the intent of possibly starting him soon. Take the Bengals, 31-7

49ers (minus 3) at Bears: The 49ers haven’t been playing great, but the Bears could be the perfect elixir for what’s been ailing them. Rookie Jusin Fields has been terrible and the coaching staff hasn’t let him run or called any designed runs for him. Silly. If Khalil Mack was playing for the Bears, I might feel differently about this one. But he’s not. Take the 49ers, 20-10

Patriots (plus 5) at Chargers: There still seems to be this feeling that the Patriots are good. They’re not. Their three wins have come against the Texans and Jets (twice). Does that scream good team to you? On the other hand, the Chargers are a good team. Take the Chargers, 30-20

Cowboys (minus 2½) at Vikings: The Cowboys are coming off a bye week and have forced 14 turnovers in six games. Can they keep that up? The Vikings have been the kings of close losses. I’m feeling an upset here. Take the Vikings, 27-24

Last Week: 1-4 ATS, 3-2 Straight up; Overall: 11-23-1 ATS; 22-14 Straight up.