Nov 11, 2022 5 min read

Does the NFL have a major issue on its hands? It certainly seems to be the case.

No, I’m not referring to what’s going on with the Washington Commanders and owner Daniel Snyder, though that’s certainly troubling.

The league’s bigger issue is what’s going on with scoring across the league.

Just two seasons ago, five teams averaged 30 or more points per game. Only four averaged 20 points or less.

This season? There’s one team averaging more than 30 points per game while 10 teams are scoring 20 or less.

What gives?

There are a number of issues seemingly at play.

First is teams are changing quarterbacks at an unprecedented pace. Of the quarterbacks selected in the first round before 2019, only four remain with the team that drafted them. Those quarterbacks – Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and Buffalo’s Josh Allen – are in at least somewhat stable positions, with Rodgers being the lone exception.

But defenses also are forcing more checkdowns by playing more 2-deep and 3-deep coverages in the secondary. They don’t want to get beaten deep.

Because of that, 19 quarterbacks this season are averaging fewer than 7.0 yards per pass attempt. In 2020, that number was 13. Even worst is that 11 quarterbacks are averaging 6.5 or fewer yards per attempt, including the Steelers’ Kenny Pickett.

But Pickett is joined in that group by Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers, Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady and Arizona’s Kyler Murray.

That leads to teams needing longer, more sustained drives to score points. And as we’ve seen with the Steelers, the more plays a team runs in a drive, the more opportunity there is for a penalty, sack or some other kind of negative play to kill the drive.

It doesn’t help when the league is emphasizing some ticky tacky penalties such as illegal lineman downfield.

You can expect this to be a hot topic in the offseason.

n So the Colts fired head coach Frank Reich and some people want the Steelers to hire him immediately to be their offensive coordinator.

Do those pushing for Reich realize there’s one offense scoring fewer points than the Steelers right now and it happens to be the Colts?

That’s not to suggest the Steelers won’t make a change if things don’t turn around this season. But bringing in Reich at midseason and tearing up the playbook to learn a new one? That’s how you screw up a rookie quarterback.

n Making moves like firing your offensive coordinator – or head coach – and bringing in someone from outside the organization to take it over sounds crazy.

But that’s what the Colts did when they fired Reich and then hired Jeff Saturday as their interim head coach. This despite former NFL head coaches John Fox and Dan Quinn already being on their staff.

To make matters worse, Indianapolis elevated assistant quarterbacks coach Parks Frazier to be their new play caller. The 30-year-old Frazier has not only never called plays before at any level, as recently as 2020, he was the offensive quality control coach. That means he was the gopher for the offensive coaching staff.

That should work out well. If not for lucking into Peyton Manning and then Andrew Luck, the Colts would be a franchise viewed similarly to the Browns and Lions.

This week’s games

Saints (plus 2½) at Steelers: Did you hear that T.J. Watt is coming back for the Steelers? The Steelers are 52-24-1 with Watt when he plays. They’re 1-10 when he doesn’t play. The Steelers also are coming off their bye week and Mike Tomlin is 11-4 in his career and 5-0 in his past five games coming off a bye. Take the Steelers, 23-17

Browns (plus 3½) at Dolphins: It’s a clash of styles as the Browns will lean on their rushing attack while the Dolphins will unleash speedy wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle against Cleveland’s secondary. The Dolphins should score enough points early to force the Browns out of their running game. Take the Dolphins, 31-20

Chargers (plus 7) at 49ers: The Chargers have been as banged up as any team in the league, but quarterback Justin Herbert makes them dangerous. Just a hunch here, but I’ll take a good team – at least in theory – getting a touchdown, even on the road against a rested San Francisco team. Take the Chargers to cover in a 27-24 loss

Texans (plus 4) at Giants: The Giants are 6-2, the Texans are 1-6-1. And yet Houston is only getting four points on the road, even though the Giants are coming off their bye week. Tells you what those who set the lines think of the Giants. But they’re certainly good enough to vanquish a horrid Texans team. Take the Giants, 21-13

Seahawks (plus 2½) at Buccaneers: This game is being played at 9:30 a.m. Sunday because it’s taking place in Munich, Germany. West Coast teams have a hard enough time playing games at 1 p.m. on the East Coast because of their body clocks think it’s actually 10 a.m. How do we think the Seahawks will like playing a game in which their internal clocks think it’s 6:30 a.m.? Not well. Take the Buccaneers, 24-16

Last Week: 1-3-1 ATS; straight up: 3-2.

Overall: 16-26-3 ATS; 25-20 straight up.