Sep 30, 2022 5 min read

You’ll never get an NFL player or coach to say that a game in September is a must-win game. That’s what we’re here for.

The Steelers face a must-win situation Sunday at Acrisure Stadium when they host the Jets.

Oh, it’s not a must-win situation in the truest sense of the word. If the Steelers don’t beat the Jets Sunday, they’ll still have 13 more games remaining on their schedule. But the reality is that if they don’t beat the Jets, they’ll be 1-3 with games against the Bills, Buccaneers, Dolphins and Eagles upcoming. They’ll be underdogs in each of those contests.

Does that mean they can’t pull off an upset or two? Nope. They already did so once this season by winning in Cincinnati on opening day.

But lose Sunday, and the Steelers would almost have to find a way to steal not just one, but probably two, of those games just to stay relevant in a topsy-turvy AFC.

The schedule lightens up considerably after this next gauntlet, but to be able to have any kind of steam down the stretch, the Steelers can’t bury themselves early.

That’s why the losses to the Patriots and Browns the past two weeks have hurt. Both games were winnable. The Steelers just lost them down the stretch by not doing enough on offensi or defense to put the game away.

That can’t happen again Sunday against the Jets, who have held a lead for just 22 seconds this season, the lowest total in the NFL.

• Heading into Week 4 of the NFL, scoring is down across the league. There are currently 17 teams averaging less than 20 points per game. It’s been so rough, the Steelers, who are averaging 18.0 points per game, are 19th in the league in scoring.

Bad offensive line play, a lack of teams playing starters in the preseason and injuries to key players are plaguing teams.

That’s one thing that’s promising about the Steelers’ slow start. The offensive line play has actually been pretty good. That was supposed to be the thing that held the team back this season.

But it doesn’t appear as if it will be a major issue – at least not right now.

• There are those who want to say Aaron Judge now is one away from the home run record in Major League Baseball after hitting his 61st earlier this week for the New York Yankees.

They say the home runs hit by Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire don’t count because they came in the “steroid era.”

Here’s the thing, though. Major League Baseball recognizes Bonds with 73 in 2001 as its single-season record.

Just because you wish something were true doesn’t make it so.

Judge has had a great season. But all he’s really done is tie the American League record for home runs.

This week’s games

Jets (plus 3) at Steelers: Will the Jets turn things over to second-year quarterback Zach Wilson, who is coming off a sprained MCL that cost him most of the preseason? It’s a win for the Steelers if they do since Wilson figures to be rusty. If the Steelers can turn Wilson over a couple of times, it will go a long way toward them winning this game. Keep an eye on rookie receiver George Pickens. This could be his breakout game. Take the Steelers, 24-16

Browns (minus 1) at Atlanta: With Myles Garrett’s auto accident earlier this week, the Browns could be without as many as six defensive starters in this game. Can Atlanta stop Cleveland’s running game? Can the Browns stop the Falcons’ running game? Cleveland averages 190.7 rushing yards per game, the surprising Falcons, 156.7. Take the running dog at home. Take the Falcons, 23-20

Bills (minus 3) at Ravens: Neither team is all that capable of simply lining up and running the football conventionally. They both rely on their quarterbacks to provide their ground attack. The Bills just have more weapons and the Ravens are struggling to stop the pass. Take the Bills, 31-27

Seahawks (plus 4) at Lions: The Seahawks surprisingly aren’t running the ball well this season, relying on the passing of Geno Smith. Yuck. The Lions and Dan Campbell have been very competitive thus far and should hold serve at home. Take the Lions, 27-20

Chiefs (plus 1) at Buccaneers: The Bucs are actually averaging less points per game than the Steelers. The Chiefs haven’t been all that much better since Patrick Mahomes threw five touchdown passes in Week 1 against the Cardinals. But Kansas City just might be in a better place. Take the Chiefs, 26-20

Last Week 2-3 ATS; 4-1 Straight up

Overall: 7-8 ATS; 8-7 Straight up