Oct 27, 2023 By Dale Lolley for The Observer-Reporter newsroom@observer-Reporter.Com 5 min read

On social media this week – on what I’ve now come to call X-Twitter – somebody made the statement to me that the Rams had outperformed the Steelers in “most major offensive categories” last Sunday.

But there’s only one offensive statistic that matters in an NFL game, that being the scoreboard.

And on the scoreboard, the Steelers beat the Rams, 24-17, to improve to 4-2.

There’s something to be said for being gritty. And this Steelers team is certainly that.

In today’s NFL, that makes them a dangerous team.

Since the Monday night game in Week 6, there have been 29 NFL games played and 24 of those have been within one score heading into the fourth quarter. It’s been a trend this season.

There have been 106 games played through seven weeks and 73 (69 percent) have been one-score games in the fourth quarter.

The Steelers are 4-0 in such games. Their opponent this week, the Jaguars, are 3-1.

The Chiefs and Eagles, the two teams that met in last season’s Super Bowl, are both 5-1 in games that are within one score in the fourth quarter.

Good teams find ways to win close games.

And the only statistic that really counts is the one they keep on the scoreboard.

• The Steelers are 59-30-2 in one-score games (8 or fewer points) over the past seven seasons. In head coach Mike Tomlin’s first 10 seasons, they were 36-28 in such games.

Perhaps the head coach has learned how to win the close ones.

• Another part of the reason for the Steelers’ late-game heroics has been quarterback Kenny Pickett.

The guy he replaced, Ben Roethlisberger, was pretty good at fourth-quarter comebacks. He engineered 41 in his 18-year career, which ranks as the third-most on the NFL’s all-time list.

Pretty good, right?

Pickett has made 18 career starts – when you consider one last season ended after four plays against Baltimore – and has five fourth-quarter comebacks.

Roethlisberger engineered a fourth-quarter comeback in just under 17 percent of his career starts. Pickett has led a fourth-quarter comeback in 28 percent of his starts.

“I just think some people are built like that,” said Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. “Some people really smile in the face of adversity. Some people are competition junkies, and I think he’s all of those things.”

This season, Pickett is completing 73 percent of his passes in the fourth quarter and has a 102.8 passer rating. In the first half of games, he’s completing 53.2 percent of his passes with a passer rating of 66.3.

Some players are just better in pressure situations.

• The NFL trade deadline is Tuesday.

People on social media need to be watchful for fake NFL “insider” accounts. For some reason, there’s a small segment of people who get their kicks by putting out fake news.

Don’t be fooled.

This week’s games

Jaguars (minus 2½) at Steelers: Two of the hottest teams in the AFC. The Steelers have won 4 of 5. The Jaguars have won 4 in a row. Tomlin is 45-40 as an underdog in his career, making him the only coach in NFL history with more than 50 games as an underdog to have a winning record straight up in those games. But can the Steelers contain Trevor Lawrence and company? Containing Travis Eitienne is a must. He leads the NFL in touches and is fifth in total yards with 700. Take the Jaguars, 24-20.

Browns (plus 4) at Seahawks: It was a classic letdown game for the Browns last week and they were fortunate to win – but not cover. That was against an Indianapolis team that isn’t as talented as the Seahawks. Back-to-back road trips for the Browns. P.J. Walker will start again for the Browns. Take the Seahawks, 20-13.

Ravens (minus 8) at Cardinals: The Cardinals were competitive early in the season. But as injuries have started to set in, that’s gone by the wayside. It’s the third road game in four weeks for the Ravens, with one of those having been played in London, but the Cardinals won’t be able to take advantage. Take the Ravens, 27-13.

Bengals (plus 3½) at 49ers: The 49ers aren’t playing well as injuries to wide receiver Deebo Samuel and left tackle Trent Williams have made Brock Purdy look more human the past two weeks. But Purdy is out with a concussion and Sam Darnold is in. That might be better for the 49ers. Even if Joe Burrow is healthy, Cincinnati’s offensive line will be an issue. Take the Bengals to cover in a 23-20 loss.

Falcons (minus 2½) at Titans: The Titans are in the middle of a fire sale and will be starting an inexperienced quarterback, whether it’s Malik Willis or rookie Will Levis. That’s not good news behind a bad offensive line. Can Titans head coach Mike Vrabel overcome that? Doubtful. Take the Falcons, 20-9.

Last Week: 2-3 ATS; 2-3 straight up

Overall: 18-16-1 ATS; 21-14 straight up