Sep 22, 2023 By Dale Lolley for The Observer-Reporter newsroom@observer-Reporter.Com 6 min read

The state of the NFL is such that two weeks into the season, just two teams, the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins, remain undefeated in the AFC.

And the AFC is supposed to be the superior conference.

That is the case, as more of the league’s better teams reside in the AFC, but that also means they’ll beat up on each other more than the teams will over in the NFC, which came out of Week 2 with seven teams at 0-2.

Where do the Steelers stack up in that hierarchy?

At this point, still firmly in the middle of the pack. But we can say that with a caveat.

They’ve not run the ball efficiently in their first two games. Of their 25 (!) runs that have not been kneel downs, 14 have gone for gains of two yards or less. But they’ve also had eight runs of five or more yards and three that have gone for 15 or more.

If they can keep up that percentage of chunk runs while also shoring up some of the other runs – say, getting at least three yards instead of something that goes for no gain – that will be OK. And that’s what they did in the second half of last season when they ran the ball effectively.

That might also help quarterback Kenny Pickett, who hasn’t seen things well in the first two games. He’s missed open receivers – either by not seeing them or just missing the throw. But that was not an issue for him late last season.

So, we can expect that to get better.

As for the run defense, it can’t continue to be as bad as it was in the first two games. The Steelers have allowed runs of 65 and 69 yards, which have inflated their overall numbers against the run.

Because there were so many new players on defense, including a new inside linebacker group, some issues were to be expected. But it wasn’t supposed to be this poor.

Not having Cam Heyward has been an issue. But Heyward has another month or so on injured reserve before he’ll be able to return. So, they had better get their run fits and communication issues resolved quickly on their own.

On the plus side, they sit here at 1-1 after two games, having played potentially the two best defenses they’ll see all season, though they do have to face the Browns again.

And, as was shown in last Monday’s 26-22 win over the Browns, the defense still has difference-makers who can change a game in a heartbeat in T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Minkah Fitzpatrick.

If they can get their offensive issues figured out and stop allowing chunk runs – something they were very good at not allowing in 2022 – the Steelers will be right in the mix.

• No, offensive coordinator Matt Canada is not the issue.

This is all about execution, or lack thereof on offense. The offensive line was very good at run blocking last season once it got rolling in the second half. The addition of a premium run blocker in Isaac Seumalo at left guard and a massive run blocking tight end in Darnell Washington should have helped.

That will come.

But Pickett needs to be better at diagnosing things quickly.

There’s still hope that this is just a slow start for the second-year quarterback. After all, Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence started last season, his second in the league, with 10 touchdown passes and six interceptions in the first eight games, averaging 230 yards passing per game.

In the second half of the season, he had 15 touchdown passes and two interceptions, averaging 252.5 yards per game.

This week’s picks

Steelers (plus 2½) at Raiders: The Steelers have struggled to score points thus far this season, but the Raiders are averaging a league-worst 13.5 points per game. Neither defense has been stellar, but the Steelers can at least rush the passer and create havoc as a team. And you can expect Steelers fans to outnumber those of the Raiders. The Steelers haven’t beaten the Raiders on the road since 1995, going 0-4. But those games were in the dump in Oakland. This is in the new palace in Las Vegas. Take the Steelers 20-16

Colts (plus 7½) at Ravens: The Ravens beat the Texans and Bengals in the first two weeks of the season, but the offense hasn’t looked great. They should win this game, but 7 ½ points is just too much. Take the Colts to cover in a 24-17 loss

Titans (plus 3) at Browns: Cleveland’s defense is playing well. It’s going to have to continue to do so with Chubb out for the season. Deshaun Watson looks like a shell of himself. And Tennessee’s run defense is the best in the league. That will put a lot of pressure on Watson, who has shown he’ll fold in those circumstances. But Tennessee’s offensive line is troublesome. Take the Browns, 23-17

Rams (plus 1½) at Bengals: This game got interesting when Joe Burrow limped off the field at the end of Cincinnati’s loss last week to the Ravens after aggravating his calf injury. Burrow is obviously not right, so even if he plays, Aaron Donald coming up the middle is going to be an issue. And the Rams’ young pass catchers have been productive. Take the Rams, 24-17 whether Burrow plays or not

Bears (plus 12½) at Chiefs: Justin Fields is not playing well, taking way too many sacks and missing easy throws. And Chicago’s defense isn’t good enough to come close to holding opposing teams in check. This could get ugly. Take the Chiefs, 30-10

Last week: 1-3-1 ATS; 4-1 overall

Overall: 4-5-1 ATS; 8-2 overall