Dec 4, 2015 3 min read

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First, let’s forget about last year’s 51-34 thrashing the Steelers put on the Colts. Those were two different teams in two different places and that game has no bearing on this one – at least to a certain extent.

There is typically so much turnover from year to year in the NFL that a game from a season ago typically has little impact on one in the current season.

But you can be sure that both teams took a good, long look at that game. In fact, Indianapolis head coach Chuck Pagano admitted as much this week.

At the same time, there’s no way the Colts will attempt to defend the Steelers as they did in that game. And remember, Indianapolis’ star corner, Vontae Davis, was injured early in that game.

The Colts will be very aware that Ben Roethlisberger shredded them for more than 500 yards and six touchdown passes last season. They will be intent on not allowing that to happen again.

So you can expect them to take a page out of what Cincinnati and Seattle did against the Steelers, trying to take away the deep ball by keeping the safeties deep and perhaps matching Davis up one-on-one with Antonio Brown.

With Martavis Bryant hobbled with a hip injury – though he’s listed as probable – it might work, at least to some extent.

But the problem for Indianapolis, is that it is 24th in the league against the run. And if it keeps the safeties deep to take away the long ball, DeAngelo Williams will have a big day.

The Steelers face some similar issues with Indianapolis’ offense. Matt Hasselbeck has thrown just two interceptions in four starts and he gets rid of the ball quickly.

There will need to be an emphasis on tackling ballcarries after the catch and that hasn’t always been a strong point for the Steelers. But after getting embarrassed last week in Seattle, I would expect the secondary to bounce back.

It’s easy to pass off allowing a lot of yards when you win as they did against Oakland and Cleveland. But when you allow a bunch of yards and lose, everyone is on edge.

I don’t expect massive changes to be made in the secondary. Antwon Blake is still going to play. He might be spelled at times in the nickel by Brandon Boykin.

But the Steelers obviously don’t think Boykin is very physical – at least not as physical as Blake and Ross Cockrell.

I have a rule that I don’t go with a team that has a quarterback coming off a concussion. And that rule typically is successful. But while Roethlisberger is coming off a concussion, I don’t believe it was a serious one – at least as concussions go.

And Indianapolis has had to shuffle its offensive line with left tackle Anothony Castonzo out and center Khaled Holmes added to the injury list as questionable with a fibula injury.

The Steelers are favored by 7 points in this one and I think they both win and cover that spread.

Take Pittsburgh, 37-20