Nov 6, 2015 6 min read

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You won’t often get players or coaches to talk about need-to-win games in early November or the middle of a season, but that’s what the Steelers are treating this week’s matchup with Oakland as.

At 1-4 in AFC games this season, the Steelers are tied with San Diego and Tennessee for the worst record in conference games in the AFC. That 3-0 record against the NFC West is nice – and who saw that coming? – but it’s the conference games that matter right behind games played within the division.

The Steelers have to, as Mike Tomlin likes to say, start stacking some conference wins.

Add in the fact that the Raiders are currently a team ahead of the Steelers in the AFC wildcard race, and this is about as need-to-win as it gets at this time of season.

The Steelers, of course, realize all of this. They know this is a game they need to have. Notice I didn’t write the word must there. Must would imply that the Steelers will be eliminated from playoff contention if they don’t win.

That’s not the case. But they most certainly would be digging the hole a little deeper.

And I think this is a game the Steelers will win, not so much because of their offense, though I think it will certainly be better than it was last week against Cincinnati. No, I think the Steelers will win this one because of their defense.

The Steelers have faced the three highest-scoring teams in the league this season: New England, Arizona and Cincinnati. They have held each to their lowest point totals of the season.

And at home, the Steelers are allowing 17.5 points per game. It’s actually better than that if you throw out a couple of grabage-time scores by San Francisco, but we can’t do that, so we won’t.

Either way, the defense stands tall at home.

Oakland has a promising young offense led by second-year quarterback Derek Carr. He has 15 touchdown passes in his past six games and is spreading the ball around nicely with four players having three touchdown catches.

But Oakland also is 2-8 in its past 10 games that have started at 1 p.m. in Eastern Standard Time. That includes a 27-20 win at Cleveland earlier this year, but the Raiders have traditionally struggled to win on the road at that time of day.

Oakland has had some success against the Steelers in recent years, winning four of the past five meetings. But three of those four wins came in Oakland.

The one game won by the Steelers was a 35-3 beatdown at Heinz Field in 2010. People like to remember a 27-24 loss the Steelers had to the Raiders in 2009, but they somehow seem to forget about that one.

I don’t think this one will be quite like that. This is a good Oakland team. But it does have its flaws.

Though the Raiders have allowed just three touchdowns to opposing wide receivers, they have given up an NFL-worst eight touchdowns to opposing tight ends. And you thought the Steelers had problems covering tight ends.

And though they don’t give up touchdowns to wide receivers, they do allow a lot of yards – nearly 200 per game to opposing wideouts.

Pittsburgh also will be getting defensive end Stephon Tuitt and strong safety Will Allen back this week, meaning the defense will again be at full strength.

The Steelers are 4 1/2-point favorites in this one. I like them to win it, 27-20.

• Now that the Steelers have moved on from Dri Archer as a kick returning, instead going with Jacoby Jones, let’s take a look back at what they could have done differently in the 2014 draft.

The Steelers selected the speedy Archer – whom they timed at sub 4.2 seconds at the combine – with the 97th pick in that draft.

They passed on, among others, Green Bay tight end Richard Rodgers, Baltimore tight end Crockett Gilmore, Atlanta running back Devonta Freeman, receiver Martavis Bryant or the player they waivered on when it came to pick Archer, Kansas City’s De’Anthony Thomas.

You could make the argument that any of those players would have been a better pick and it would have a lot of merit. But also remember that two of them, Cockrell and Bryant, are currently on the team’s roster.

And let’s also remember that Cockrell, who is now a big part of the Steelers’ secondary, was released earlier this season by Buffalo, which took him 11 picks after Archer was taken.

Sometimes things don’t work out for a player in one place but do in another.

I remember watching Archer at mini-camp in his rookie season and thinking the Steelers had gotten a steal. Nobody could run with him. He would catch a pass or run around end and he was off to the races.

But, once the tackling began, he was a non-factor. He just didn’t have the kind of balance you need to play in this league at 5-8 and 173 pounds.

At the same time, he didn’t get a lot of opportunities, at least not the chances that Thomas, for example, has gotten in Kansas City.

The Chiefs don’t have the offensive weapons that the Steelers possess, so they find ways to get Thomas the ball. Thomas, who is 5-8, 176 pounds, has 36 career catches for 259 yards – a 7.2 yard average – and 22 carries for 140 yards – a 6.4 yard average.

Not including his touches on kick returns, he has averaged just under three offensive touches per game. But he’s scored three offensive touchdowns to go along with one on a return.

The trouble for the Steelers and offensive coordinator Todd Haley was this: Did you want to try to get the ball to Archer three times a game or would you rather keep feeding Antonio Brown, Bryant, Le’Veon Bell, etc.?

Kansas City had no such problems, especially last season, when its receivers went 16 games without scoring a touchdown.

Archer was a bust here to be sure, but it certainly wasn’t all his fault. Circumstance played a role.

• Fans will complain about the 2014 draft because a supplemental third round pick didn’t work out – but let’s also remember that draft produced Ryan Shazier, Tuitt, Bryant and Daniel McCullers. That’s a nice haul.

Add in the addition of Cockrell this year, and you’ve got what appears to be five key players out of one draft.