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Who I like, Steelers vs. Jaguars

4 min read
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The NFL is an up-and-down league. Don’t believe that.

Take a look at the Steelers and Jaguars.

Two weeks ago, Pittsburgh muddled its way through a 23-17 overtime loss at Chicago. Jacksonville, meanwhile, was handing Baltimore its first loss in a dominating 44-7 victory in London.

A week later, the Steelers went on the road for a second-straight week and demolished Baltimore, 26-9, while the Jaguars were losing in overtime to the supposedly hapless New York Jets.

Now, the Jaguars, at 2-2, come to Pittsburgh having blown out Houston in Week 1 and Baltimore in Week 3 while getting spanked in Week 2 by Tennessee.

Want an even bigger show of disparity? How about the fact that the Jaguars have the NFL’s top-rated pass defense and lowest-rated run defense?

They are the only team in the NFL allowing more rushing yards per game than they do passing, something that’s awfully difficult to do in today’s pass-happy NFL.

Likewise, Jacksonville’s offense isn’t exactly dynamic, either. The Jaguars want to line up with two tight ends and a fullback and pound the line of scrimmage with bruising running backs Leonard Fournette and Chris Ivory.

The Jaguars will occasionally run some outside zone stretch runs, something the Steelers have had issues with the past two weeks, but it’s not their forte. They want to line up and beat up at the line of scrimmage.

That bodes well for the Steelers, who should be able to keep their base 3-4 on the field more often in this one. And if you’re going to run straight at the Steelers’ 3-4 base, you’re going to be in for a long day.

Likewise, the Steelers will want to start fast to take that running game out of the equation, as well. The Jaguars don’t want quarterback Blake Bortles throwing the ball more than 25 or 30 times per game, in part because they don’t trust Bortles and in part because their receivers are below average.

The Steelers have to keep Jacksonville off the board early – the Jaguars are the only team in the league that has scored a touchdown on its first possession all four weeks – and get out to a lead. If they can do that, Jacksonville is in trouble. They don’t have the personnel to play from behind.

But the Jaguars defense will be a tough nut to crack. Jacksonville leads the NFL in sacks – Pittsburgh is second – and tries to stop the run on its way to the passer.

This could be a game where Le’Veon Bell’s trademark patience could work against him if the Jaguars are getting penetration.

What will be worth the price of admission is watching receivers Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and JuJu Smith-Schuster against Jacksonville’s cornerback trio of Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye and nickel Aaron Colvin.

That is strength on strength to be sure.

The Jaguars will trust those three often times one-on-one in man coverage. If the Steelers can win those battles, they should win this game.

Two other things to keep an eye on are Jacksonville’s coverage of tight ends. The Jaguars have allowed 21 receptions and two touchdown catches to opposing tight ends. They also give up more than 20 yards per punt return. Ouch.

Antonio Brown won’t be fair-catching any punts this week.

The Steelers are 8-point favorites to win this game, which would set up a big matchup with Kansas City next week at Arrowhead Stadium.

They shouldn’t get caught looking ahead to that one.

Jacksonville will be playing what is essentially its third consecutive road game, despite hosting the Ravens in London two weeks ago. The Jaguars figure to be a little road weary.

Take the Steelers to win, 23-13.

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